Doncaster, Kelso and Kempton Horse Racing Betting Tips | Saturday 26th March

Back to normal with the regular Saturday TV tips and trends – this weekend it’s the start of the new flat turf season as the regular curtain-raiser fixture – Doncaster – gets us going.

The ITV cameras are there to show the action, with the Lincoln Handicap (3:35) the main event – a race trainer William Haggas will be trying to win for a fifth time and if he can will become the most successful trainer in the races history. 

There is also ITV action over the jumps from Kelso, plus AW racing at Kempton, that included the Listed Magnolia Stakes (2:05). 

As always, to help narrow down the fields and hopefully find the winners – here at CASUMO we give you all the key horse racing betting trends and stats ahead of the LIVE ITV races this Saturday 26th March 2022. 

Let’s Get Started!

 

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) 

2.05 – Unibet Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
8/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/14 – Had won at Kempton before
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Trained by William Haggas

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: Several with fair chances here including CD winner Felix, plus Al Zaragaan and Father Of Jazz. However, the top-rated FANCY MAN stands out. This 109-rated Richard Hannon runner has to give 3lbs away to the rest, but saw off another of today’s runners – King Of The South – by 2 ½ lengths when last running at this level. That came two runs ago in a Listed race at Lingfield and a repeat of that effort would make him hard to beat.


2.40 – Unibet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

10/10 – Won no more than 5 times
9/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had won over 1m6f or further
7/10 – Only won between 1-3 times before
7/10 – Rated between 82-89
7/10 – Had run at Kempton before
7/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Favourites that finished 2nd
5/10  – Had won at Kempton in the past
2/10 – Trained by Roger Charlton
0/10 – Winning favourites 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: The Charlie Appleby yard have a 43% record with their 4 year-olds at the track so with that in mind it’s hard to get away from their BANDINELLI. This Godolphin runner has won three of his last four races – including last time out here back in November. He’s up 5lbs for that here but looks an improving middle distance stayer that can be expected to be stronger for another winter under his belt. Of the rest, CD winners – Imperium and Moliwood – have to command respect, while Auriferous seems to have a bit to prove over this longer trip. The old-timer – SIR CHAUVELIN (e/w) – can do best of the rest having won well last time at Newcastle to defy his advancing years. 

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 – SBK Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
15/17 – Had won no more than 5 times before
15/17 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
15/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/17 – Rated 102+
10/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites (or joint)
4/17 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: The Charles Hills yard took this race 12 months ago and look to have another big chance – this time with GARRUS, who is the top-rated in the field. This 6 year-old is dropped into Listed grade after running well in Group company (G3 winner in France last Aug). He’s also a horse that’s gone well fresh so the 5 ½ month break isn’t too much of a worry. Diligent Harry looks his biggest threat and can run well too. Bielsa has a bit to prove after flopping here last November, so a chance is taken on the race-fit MONDAMMEJ (e/w), who has been in fine form over the winter on the AW tracks, but is also a 3-time winner on the green stuff.  

 

2.25 – SBK Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/19 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/19 – Aged 4 years-old
15/19 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/19 – Won over a mile before
10/19 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/19 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 19 years

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 4 years-old 

CASUMO VERDICT: The likes of Empirestateofmind, General Lee and Mostawaa will all be popular here, as will A Boy Named Ivy and Star Shield. But the Andrew Balding yard have a 23% record with their 4 year-olds at the track so a chance is taken on their MAY NIGHT (e/w). Fit from a few runs on the AW, this 4 year-old does have a bit to prove on the grass, but the first time cheekpieces look a good move and David Probert is back in the saddle – his last three runs on the horse read 3-1-3. The other yard with a good record here is the Ed Dunlop yard (29%) with their 4 year-olds – they run ARTHUR’S REALM (e/w). This 4 year-old is another that’s been running on the AW, but the return to the turf is a plus as his only career win has been on the grass. In fact, he’s only been out of the first three on the green stuff twice from 8 runs.

 

3.00 – SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 8 previous running
8/8 – Last ran 4+ months ago
8/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Rated 106+
7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/8 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/8 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/8 – Had won 6+ times before
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/8 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 5)
2/8 – Won last time out 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 7 of the last 8 winners were aged between 5-7 years-old 

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the four runners here and on these terms it’s hard to get away from the 112-rated CHINDT. This 4 year-old is trained by Richard Hannon and at the weights seems to have 12lbs in-hand on his three other rivals. He was fancied for the 2000 Guineas last season and ran a fine 5th that day and despite not winning after was tackling much better company. He also won first time out last season, so the 169-day break is fine. Boosala, for William Haggas, has to be respected, but the Roger Varian yard have a decent record in this race – winning 3 of the last 5 – so their ROYAL CHAMPION get the ‘best of the rest’ verdict.

 

3.35 – SBK Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
17/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/18 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/18 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
13/18 – Having their first run of the flat season
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/18 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/18 – Placed first or second last time out
9/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/18 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/18  – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/18 – Trained by John Quinn
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 3)
9 of the last 11 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 35 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

CASUMO KEY TREND: 14 of the last 18 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher

CASUMO VERDICT: Trainer William Haggas will be looking to win the Lincoln Handicap for a record-breaking fifth time – he’s got a strong hand again with the unbeaten Mujtaba, who has been propping up the betting for a while now, plus he’s also got Irish Admiral and AMETIST (e/w). But the first-two are drawn low and with 14 of the last 18 winners drawn 9 or higher this is a possible negative. Another leading player in the betting – Saleymm – is also drawn low, so, therefore, a chance is taken on the already mentioned other Haggas runner – Ametist. This 5 year-old is drawn 13 so will have options in the middle and was a fair third in the Cambridgeshire Handicap at HQ last time out. He’s won 50% of his 8 races too so knows where the winning line is and Cieren Fallon is a plus in the saddle. Others to note are Brunch, Roque Bear and Darkness, but the other main pick is the Andrew Balding runner – NOTRE BELLE BETE (e/w), who won the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton last time out. This 4 year-old is drawn 21 but is also fit from the AW after two wins since joining the Balding yard from Ireland recently. 

 

Kelso Horse Racing Trends 

1.35 – Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV 

7/7 – Aged between 7-10 years old
7/7 – Won over at least 2m5f before
7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Carried 11st 1lbs or more in weight
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Carried 11st 5lbs or more in weight
5/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/7 – Rated between 140-142
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Had run at Kelso before
2/7 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
1/7  – Winning favourites 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Just 1 winning favourite in the last 7 runnings.

CASUMO VERDICT: Goodtimes Badtimes and Son Of The Somme have been running well and have consistent profiles of late – both can go well. Sheriff Garrett was a good winner at Sedgefield last time out but is up 7lbs for that win so a lot more needed and is also upped in grade. But a chance is taken on THREE CASTLES (e/w) and DIAMOND STATE (e/w). The former comes from the Keith Dalgleish yard that have a 19% record with their hurdlers here at the track. His last run was too bad to be true but in this better race gets in with just 10st to carry, which will be a big plus. Diamond State represents the Lucinda Russell yard and has the useful 10lb claimer – Connor McCann – riding. He’s finished in the first three 7 times from 11 runs over hurdles and should be slightly more at home on this better ground. 

 

3:15 – Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV 

No previous runnings
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 50% (3-from-6) record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 40% record (2-from-5) record with his hurdlers at the track 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

CASUMO VERDICT: A rare runner at the track for trainer Nicky Henderson – THEATRE GLORY – so the hint should be taken. The yard boasts a 40% record here with their runners over hurdles too and heads here off the back of a good win at Warwick last time out. Into a handicap for the first time here but Nathan Brennan booked to ride to claim a handy 7lbs too. Recent winners – Aliomaana and Betty Baloo – can go well too, and Cancan has a consistent profile so has to be considered. Hat-trick seeking Taragrace heads here in great form too, but the other of interest is the Alan King handicap debutant – HASEEFAH (e/w). This 5 year-old mare has shown fair form in three runs – winning well at Market Rasen three runs back – but should be much more competitive now into a handicap on what looks a fair mark.