Horseracing: Haydock and Ascot tips & trends

More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras cover eight races across three venues – Ascot, Haydock and Kempton  

Plenty to get excited about at each venue, but the Group One Sprint Cup (3.30) from Haydock Park is the feature race on the day where we get a chance to see some of the best sprinters on the planet. 

Did you know? 15 of the last 19 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 14 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 5 or higher. 

 

Like all big race days, here at CASUMO we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.  

 

Let’s Get Cracking! 

 

Saturday 4th September 2021

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – Betfair Double Daily Rewards Superior Mile (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

15/17 – Won over 1m or further before
15/17 – Won 3 or more times before
14/17 – Winning distance 1 length or more
13/17 – Had won a Listed or better race before
13/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Had won at Haydock before
3/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Brian Ellison
Top Rank (11/2) won the race in 2020
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1 or 4

CASUMO KEY TREND: 13 of the last 17 winners had won at Listed (or better) class before

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the five runners heading to post here in a tight little contest. However, the ratings suggest MY OBERON and Lord Glitters will be popular. The last-named is still running to a good level of form at the age of 8 and is actually the top-rated in the field. He was last seen running on well to take second in the Strensall Stakes at York, with My Oberon back in 5th that day. But I just feel the drop back to a mile isn’t totally ideal as he’s been doing his best work at the finish over 1m1f of late – the worry would be that he might have too much ground to make up in the later stages. Therefore, My Oberon is taken to bounce back. That last run came off 2 months off so should be sharper for it and it’s interesting the blinkers are on today as he’s been racing a bit keen in his races. He was also a fair second in this race 12 months ago and was only 3 ¼ lengths behind the classy Love in the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes back in June. Of the rest, Maydanny, Bell Rock and Artistic Rifles are all useful on their day but do have a bit to find on the ratings with the main two mentioned. Of the trio, BELL ROCK can come out next best – he was only beaten 2 ½ lengths in the already mentioned Strensall Stakes and also beat Maydanny in a handicap earlier this season at HQ on similar terms. 

 

2.20 – “My Odds Boost” On Betfair Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

11/12 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
11/12 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
6/12 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/12 – Irish Bred
6/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Ran at either York (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
Favourite Moon (9/4) won the race in 2020

CASUMO KEY TREND: 10 of the last 12 winners carried 9st 1lb or less

CASUMO VERDICT: The Andrew Balding yard have a decent record in this race – winning it twice in the last five years – so their VALLEY FORGE catches the eye here. This 3 year-old has won his last two and could be ahead of the handicapper still with both successes being narrow margins. Yes, he’s up another 7lbs here but improved to win a 22 runner handicap at York last time on his first try over this trip to suggest there is more in the locker. Vino Victrix is another hat-trick seeker on show here after wins at Sandown and Kempton. He stays further than this trip and is another to respect off just 4lbs higher than last time. The Mark Johnston yard won this in 2012 and saddle two – Roseabad, who won well last time out at Carlisle, and Golden Flame, who was well back in the York race won by Valley Forge last time. The Queen’s Tynwald won his first two starts but flopped as a beaten favourite last time at Windsor so needs to bounce back and is also up in trip here. PRAIANO was 2 lengths fourth behind Oceanline last time at Sandown, but this Roger Varian runner was staying on well that day and with a 3lb pull at the weights can reverse the form. He’s only had five career runs so will have more to come and jockey, Andrea Atzeni, also took this prize 12 months ago.

2.55 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
17/18 – Had won at least twice before
16/18 – Had run 4 or more times that season
15/18 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
14/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
14/18 – Rated 90 to 101
13/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
10/18 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
10/18 – Had run over 1m6f before
9/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/18 – Ran at Haydock before
7/18 – Ran at York last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/18 – Trained by Iain Jardine
2/18 – Trained by Ian Williams
Euchen Glen (14/1) won this race in 2020
Reshoun (6/1) won this race in 2018 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 3, 4 or 5

CASUMO VERDICT: With 15 of the last 18 winners aged 3, 4 or 5, this might be seen as a negative for the older runners in the field – Hochfeld, Alright Sunshine, Autumn War, Indianapolis, Island Brave, Nicholas T and Sextant. With THE TRADER, GLOBAL STORM, NOBLE MASQUERADE, RAJINSKY and RHYTHMIC INTENT the five that fit the key age trend. Of that bunch Godolphin’s Global Storm should find this a bit easier than the Ebor he ran in last time, but was still just over 11 lengths back that day. If you can forgive that run, then his previous form this season would make him interesting, but he’s got a lot of weight (9-10) to carry here too and might not be much value in the betting. Noble Masquerade will be popular with his consistent profile – he’s up 6lbs from his easy recent Windsor win, but the unknown would be the longer trip here with his only previous try being a well-beaten 6th (of 8) here at the track last September. So, the two I’m going to focus on are RAJINSKY and THE TRADER (e/w). The former stays a bit further than this 1m6f trip having been third in the Northumberland Plate (2m) back in June at Newcastle and is also a pound lower when beaten 6 ½ lengths in this race 12 months ago. The horse also didn’t get a clear run last year in this race so would have probably got a lot closer. The Trader comes from the Mark Johnston yard that have won this race four times in the last 18 runnings. His form has been patchy this season, but the step back up in trip will help and has also dropped to an attractive mark of 91 – his last win came off 93. Of the rest, the Ian Williams yard are another that like to target his prize so their Autumn War and Indianapolis can’t be ruled out either. 

 

3.30 – Betfair Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

17/19 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
16/19 – Rated 111 or higher
16/19 – Had won over 6f before
15/19 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
13/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/19 – Had won a Group race before
12/19 –Had 4 or more runs that season
10/19 – Had run at Haydock before (4 had won)
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/19 – Ran at Deauville (4) or York (5) last time out
8/19 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/19 – Had won a Group 1 before
7/19 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 8/1

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: Some classy sprinters on show here, but this looks a good chance for the 120-rated STARMAN – to get back to winning ways and land his second Group One. He was last seen a close third in the Maurice de Gheest in France and prior to that won the July Stakes well at HQ. He’s the clear top-rated in the field and seems to act well on all ground, so his form of this season looks rock solid and a repeat of either of his last two runs should be good enough. Creative Force was 2 lengths behind the selection at Newmarket in July so shouldn’t be far away again, while Art Power was fourth behind Starman in the July Stakes – beaten just 1 ¾ lengths – and is another that should be in the mix. But GLEN SHIEL (e/w), seems to like this time of year and was a fair second in this race 12 months ago too. The ground is okay and being rated 116 doesn’t have too much ground to find with the selection in a race that could be decided by a split decision in-running – regular pilot, Hollie Doyle, rides.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

3.10 – Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

9/11 – Rated between 84-95
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/11 – Had won just once before
6/11 – Horses placed from stall 10
6/11 – Carried 9-0 or more
6/11 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
5/11 – Returned a double-figure price
5/11 – Horses placed from stall 8
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/11 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat

CASUMO KEY TREND: 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 84 and 95

CASUMO VERDICT: Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team up here with Wahraan and despite running fifth last time out did have an excuse after slipping out the stalls and not getting a clear run in the race. He does, also need to prove he stays the longer trip though. The Roger Varian yard have won the last two runnings and look to have a leading chance again here with Alfaadhel, but is another that is up in trip here and breeding would suggest that getting this 1m4f might be hit and miss. The Gary Moore team look to have a nice sort on their hands with Champagne Piaff, who won well at Windsor last time, but is yet another stepping up in distance. The consistent Auriferous can be thereabouts for the Andrew Balding yard, while Stay Well and Irish Legend ran decent races last time too. But the call here is to side with the two William Haggas runner – CHALK STREAM and CANDLEFORD (e/w). The former has caught the eye in winning his last two over this trip at York and Ripon. He’s up 8lbs more here and up in grade too, but this royal runner has been doing it well with plenty in-hand to suggest he’s well worth a crack at this better race. Candleford has only had three career runs and is into a handicap for the first time here. He won well over 1m2f last time at Windsor (4 lengths) and on that evidence should be fine over the longer trip. It’s also interesting connection opt to put the useful Adam Farragher on his back to claim a handy 5lbs.

3.45 – Careys Foundation Supporting The Lighthouse Club Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

Only 9 previous runnings
10/10 – Had won over 7f before
10/10 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had run at the course before
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Won by a claiming jockey (5 of the last 7)
5/10 – Had between 4-7 wins already
4/10 – Rated between 95-97
3/10 – Aged 5 years-old
2/10 – Winners from stall 12
0/10 – Winning favourites
Documenting (14/1) won the race in 2020
Salute The Soldier (10/1) won the race in 2019
Ripp Orf (7/1) won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: Two recent winners of the race in Ripp Orf and DOCUMENTING (e/w). The former won this in 2018 and was second in 2019, but has had his issues since. He returned from almost 2 years off last month at Sandown to run down the field so the jury is still out on whether he’s retained his ability. He does like the track though and off a mark would be very well-handicapped off 87 and with a 7lb claiming jockey in the saddle. But DOCUMENTING, who won this in 2020, seems to be running into form at the right time after a close third at Donny last month. He’s off the same mark here as last time and also as when he won this 12 months ago. Mystery Smiles and Cliffs Of Capri, who often runs well here, can’t be ruled out, but the Charlie Fellowes runner – VIA SERENDIPTY (e/w) – was a nice winner at Windsor last time out and despite being raised 4lbs for that still looks very well-treated on older form. He’s rated 90 now but was as high as 105 only back in April. The niggle would be that he was well beaten in this race last year having also come here off the back of a win, but the Fellowes yard hadn’t had him long last season when he ran in this, and the manner of his last win suggests he’s worth giving another try to. In a race, with many chances, Baashir, Top Secret, Silver Samurai and Maxi Boy all have cases too and it actually won’t be a huge shock if any of the 11 runners won – it’s one of those races! 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.40 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
10/15 – Didn’t win last time out
10/15 – Had won between 4-7 times before
9/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
9/15 – Had run at Kempton before
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/15 – Aged 4 years-old
4/15 – Godolphin-owned runners
4/15 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 6)
3/15 – Winners from stall 2
3/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Enable won the race in 2018 and 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 15 favourites were placed

CASUMO VERDICT: No Enable this year, who had used this race as her prep for the Arc. We’ve, therefore, a slightly more competitive race, but with the useful HUKUM in attendance, it’s hard to see beyond him. This Owen Burrows-trained 4 year-old has won his last two at York and Newbury – both at this level – very well and is 1-from-1 on the AW when winning here back in 2019. He’s got to give 3lbs away to the others, being a G3 winner this season, so that won’t be easy, but he’s looked to have improved this season and the way he powered clear last time at Newbury suggests he’s up to the task. OUTBOX was only 1 ¾ behind the pick at York in July and is 3lbs better off so you can make a case for him to be thereabouts – he rates the main danger. The globe-trotting Prince Of Arran was third in this race 12 months ago and would also have a squeak on the ratings, but you just feel he’s better over further and also isn’t getting any younger at 8. Hamish returns from a 442-day absence and is also making his AW debut here – useful a few seasons ago, but I’d prefer to see him with a run under his belt to see if he’s still as good. Fox Tal makes up the five runners and has the form to go well, but is now 12 races without a win so isn’t an easy horse to catch right.  

3.15 – Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap Cl2(3yo+) 1m ITV 

14/14 – Had run at Kempton before
12/14 – Had won over a mile before
11/14 – Won between 3-7 times before
11/14 – Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
5/14 – Rated between 77-85
5/14 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
5/14 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 14 (3) or 16 (2)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: With 5 of the last 8 winners coming from stalls 14 or 16, then HOLD FAST (14) would tick that box, with only 14 runners in the field. The soft ground went against this 4 year-old last time at Ascot, but prior to that had been running well, including winning twice here this year. He’s had a nice break since (4 months) and Oisin Murphy catches the eye in the saddle. With 4 year-olds winning 10 of the last 14, then others to note in the race would be Tahitian Prince, Giuseppe Cassioli and Fantasy Believer. The first-named has also won his last two here at the track, but is 5lbs higher than his last win here so does need to find more. Thunderclap, Exceedingly Regal, Hieronymus, Crystal Casque, Fantasy Believer and Sharla are all proven CD winners in the field to respect, but a chance is also taken on STORM CATCHER (e/w), who is very lightly-raced with only four runs and was beaten just a head by Exceedingly Regal here last time. That run came on his first run back since being gelded and off a 2-month break, so can also be expected to have improved.  

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