Newmarket July Meeting Betting Trends & Tips – Day 2

The three-day 2021 Newmarket July Meeting is the highlight this week – running from Thursday 8th till Saturday 10th July. 

Here at Casumo, we’ll be with you through the fixture to cover all the main races with key trends and our verdicts. 

We continue on DAY TWO, with four LIVE races with the Tattersalls Group One Falmouth Stakes the main event.

Let’s get cracking………………

 

Newmarket July Meeting – Day Two, Friday 9th July

 

1.50 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV3

12/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
11/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
9/14 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
7/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including 6 of last 8 runnings)
5/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/14 – Winning favourites

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won 6 of the last 8 runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: A competitive handicap to get the live action going, and it’s been a nightmare race for the favourite with not a single market leader winning in the last 14 runnings. However, the two standout trainers in this race in recent years have been Andrew Balding and Mark Johnston – so the safe call could be to stick with their runners –FOXES TALES and KING FRANKEL. The former was a good winner at Ascot last month at the Royal Meeting and despite a 9lb hike for that success he’s a horse that’s lightly raced and looked to have a fair bit in-hand at the line that day – there should be more to come. In fact, the other pick – King Frankel – also ran in that same Ascot race (4th) but was only beaten 3 ¾ lengths. There is, however, a 9lb weight pull in favour of the Johnston runner this time so there shouldn’t be a lot between the duo. Of the rest, it would be foolish to ignore the Dettori/Gosden runner – Peter The Great – who was an easy CD winner here last month and steps into handicap company for the first time today. Dubai Honour, who runs for the same connections as King Frankel, plus Lord Protector and Indigo Jones are others that would have the form in the book to go well here.
 

 

2.25 – Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV3

17/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/17 – Had raced at least twice before
16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
15/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
13/17 – Won by a UK-based yard
12/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
9/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 5)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
3/17 – Drawn in stall 1

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 17 winners were drawn in stalls 8 or lower

CASUMO VERDICT: This race has been kind to jockey Frankie Dettori in recent times – winning the prize five times – so the pocket Italian’s ride – Flotus – has to be considered. However, she was well back behind another of today’s runners – SANDRINE – in the G3 Albany stakes at Royal Ascot last time and this classy-looking Andrew Balding juvenile is taken to uphold the form. She’s now 2-from-2 having won at Kempton on debut in May and has proven that she can be versatile in terms of the ground having won on heavy and the AW. She’s the clear top-rated in the field too (105) and if running to the form of last time should take the beating. Of the others, Hello You stayed on well to be second behind the selection last time and commands respect on the likely better ground, plus we’ve also got the Albany Stakes third renewing rivalry – OSCULA – and she’s taken to be the main danger. She has won well twice on better ground at Epsom and Brighton prior to that last Ascot run and providing the ground stays on the quicker side then she would have a better chance. Ellade and Desert Dreamer are respect also, while Ryan Moore, who has won this race three times since 2014, catches the eye booked to ride the lightly raced Sadmah for trainer Kevin Ryan.

 

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV3

Just three previous runnings
The Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019 and 2020
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
Cape Coast (13/2) won this race in 2020
King’s Advice (10/1) won this race in 2019
No winning favourites
3/3 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
2/3 – Winners from stall 3
2/3 – Carried 9-3 or more
Just three previous running
The Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019 and 2020
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
Cape Coast (13/2) won this race in 2020
King’s Advice (10/1) won this race in 2019
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Ben Curtis has a 36% riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a 29% riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 26% riding 4+ year-olds at the track

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won the last two runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the three past runnings of this race, but with trainer Mark Johnston winning two of them, his runners – Watersmeet, Themaxwecan and Hochfeld all have to be on the shortlist. Of that trio, the first two-named have a bit to prove at the moment after some average runs, so their HOCHFELD (e/w) could be the safer call of the three. This 7 year-old is also the only proven CD winner in this field and ran a blinder in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle (2nd) at the end of last month. He’s up 2lbs for that run, but the drop back to 1m6f here will suit and should make a bold bid with jockey Ben Curtis, who has a 36% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track, in the saddle. Jockeys – Andrea Atzeni and PJ McDonald – are others with good records at the track so their mounts – Throne Hall and RAJINSKY (e/w) – are worth noting too. The last-named was third in the already mentioned Northumberland Plate last time too and that came after getting hampered in the race too. He rarely runs a bad race and looks worth having onside too. Course winner – Faylag – is another of interest but does need to prove he can stay the longer trip – running over this 1m6f for the first time. Arthurian Fable will have Ryan Moore riding and is closely matched with Amtiyaz on their runs at Royal Ascot last month. Prince Alex and Global Storm will be popular too, while the Godolphin 4 year-old – LIVE YOUR DREAM (e/w) – also stands out. Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride this lightly raced gelding, who bolted up at Wolverhampton last time out. Yes, this is a big step up in grade here, but he’s yet to finish out of the first three from six runs (3 wins) and having won over 2m we know he’ll stay this trip well.

 

 

3.35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV3

19/19 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
18/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/19– Won over at least 1 mile previously
15/19 – Won from stall 5 or lower
15/19 – Had 2+ runs that season
14/19 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
10/19 – Favourites placed
7/19 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
7/19 – Previous Group One winners
7/19 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/19 – Won their last race
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/19 – French-trained winners
Nazeef (9/2) won the race in 2020

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: A very open renewal of this decent Group One contest – you can certainly make a case for most of the 13 runners. Last month’s Coronation Stakes cold provide the clues with the first three home in that race – Alcohol Free (1st), Snow Lantern (2nd) and Mother Earth (3rd) – all back for more. That race, however, was run on heavy ground, so conditions here are likely to be a lot different – unless there is a lot of rain! Alcohol Free won that race well by 1 ½ lengths and many will have her to uphold that form. But if the ground is on the better side, the third MOTHER EARTH can get closer and hopefully reverse that form. This season’s 1000 Guineas winner took that Newmarket Classic on quicker ground and if that’s the case (re conditions) again here, she’s more likely to see out this 1m trip better than her last two runs. She’s only been out of the first three once on the turf from 11 starts and Ryan Moore is an obvious bonus in the saddle to ride this Aidan O’Brien runner as they look for their third success in the race in the last six years. With 3 or 4 year-olds having won 18 of the last 19 runnings, this would be a negative for the 5 year-olds – Queen Power, Lavender’s Blue and Lady Bowthorpe. Saffron Beach and Pretty Gorgeous have the form to go well too but need to bounce back. Primo Bacio is interesting too up in grade after a very easy Listed win at York in May. She’s been kept fresh for this since and gets a handy 9lbs from the older horses – she can go well. But the other of interest is the Frankie-ridden – INDIE ANGEL – who was last seen bolting up in the G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Ascot. She had Lady Bowthorpe 2 ½ lengths back that day and even though it won’t be easy giving the weight away to the 3 year-olds, she’s a proven course winner here too and will love it if the ground stays on the fast side.

 

All times BST

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