Saturday ITV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Newmarket, Newbury & RIPON

This Saturday we’ve more decent LIVE ITV horse racing action with the cameras heading to three venues. 

Up at Ripon they stage their biggest day on the calendar with two LIVE races that are spearheaded by the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap – a race that 15 of the last 19 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old. 

Then at Newmarket we’ve two decent handicaps, while at Newbury there are four more contests with the Group Two Hungerford Stakes and the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes the main events. 

Did you know? 15 of the last 19 Hungerford Stakes winners were aged 3 or 4 and has already won at least 3 times before. 

Like all big race days, here at CASUMO we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.  

Let’s Get Cracking! 

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.00 – MansionBet Bet £10 Get £20 Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4

5 previous runnings
4/5 – Drawn stalls 3 or lower
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Placed in the top three last time out
4/5 – Rated between 83-88 (inc)
4/5 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/5 – Horse from stall 2 placed in the top 3
4/5 – Irish bred
4/5 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
3/5 – Had run at the track before
3/5 – Won by a jockey claiming an allowance
3/5 – Carried 8-8 or less in weight
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Mark Johnston won the race in 2019

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Drawn in stalls 3 or lower

CASUMO VERDICT: If running, the William Haggas-trained Midrarr will be popular are two nice wins at Wolverhampton, but is up another 5lbs here and up two grades so has more on her plate. Eileendover has some smart NH Flat form to her name but is yet to translate that to the flat (0-from-3). The Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019 and try to add another win with their Military Two Step, but after winning well at Chester in July hasn’t kicked on with her higher rating. So, the call goes to the topweight, MAKAWEE and recent Kempton scorer – GOOLWA. The former will find this a lot easier than the G2 races she’s been running in and despite having a lot of weight 9-10 was an easy 6 ½ length winner the last time she ventured into handicap company. The other pick hails from the Andrew Balding yard that have a 21% record with their 3 year-olds here at the track. This filly was a tidy winner at Kempton last time out and a 4lb rise for that looks fair. She gets into this harder race with just 8-3 in weight and looks the sort to have more to come. 

2.35 – MansionBet Bet £10 Get £20 Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV 

17/18 – Failed to win last time out
15/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
14/18 – Aged 5 or older
14/18 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
13/18 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
13/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Had 3 or more career wins
12/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
1/18 – Winning favourites
My Style (4/1 fav) won the race in 2020
My Amigo (5/1) won the race in 2018
Case Key (8/1) won the race in 2017 and 2019 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 13 of the last 18 winners aged 5, 6 or 7

CASUMO VERDICT: A spectacle of a race with the contest for grey horses only. George Bowen and Devil’s Angel are two proven course and distance winners in the field to respect, but we’ve also two previous winners of this race – CASE KEY and MY STYLE – so the safest thing to do might be to stick with this pair. My Style was 2 ½ lengths behind Devil’s Angel last time here but wasn’t the best away that day and stayed on well too to suggest with a better start he can get a lot closer this time. Case Key is actually a two-time winner of the race (2017 and 2019), plus heads here in great form having won well at Nottingham last month. He’s up 7lbs for that win but won this race in 2017 off a pound higher rating so is more than capable of running well off this mark. Of the rest, recent winner Mitrosonfire is another to consider, and the already-mentioned Devil’s Angel comes from the Jedd O’Keefe yard that boast a decent 50% record here with their 4+ year-olds. 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.45 – Denford Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV4 

16/19 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Finished in the first three last time out
16/19 – Had won a race before
15/19 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
14/19 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Horses from stall 3 placed
10/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/19 – Won on their racecourse debut
4/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

CASUMO KEY TREND: 16 of the last 19 winners returned 4/1 or shorter

CASUMO VERDICT: The Roger Varian yard won this race 12 months ago and try again – this time with Bayside Boy, who was a tidy 3 ¼ length winner over this course and distance here on debut last month. He clearly handled the track well that day and holds some fancy G1 and G2 entries to suggest connections feel he’s smart. The Hannon camp took this in 2018 and run two – Robjon and debutant Holiday – while Seattle King was a nice winner on debut too at Salisbury to warrant respect. The one that has the clear best form in the book so far though is the Andrew Balding runner – MASEKELA, who was last seen running a close second in the G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last month. He ran on well that day so gets this 7f trip well and jockey William Buick, who has a 23% record riding 2 year-olds here is a plus in the saddle. He’s also acted well on quick and soft ground so conditions will be fine no matter what they throw up. I expect Bayside Boy to be a big danger, but I’m happy to go with the form in the book around this level. 

2.20 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV4 

19/19 – Had won at least twice in their career
17/19 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
15/19 – Aged 3-5 years-old
14/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/19 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
13/19 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/19 – Officially rated 110 or higher
11/19 – Ran at Goodwood or Newmarket last time out
10/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Had already won a Group race
7/19 – Had won at Newbury before
Hukum (4/1) won the race in 2020
Technician (10/1) won the race in 2019

CASUMO KEY TREND: 14 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: The Owen Burrows-trained HUKUM landed this race 12 months ago and there is every chance this 4 year-old can defend this title. He’s the clear top-rated in the field (114) and despite having to give some weight away to the others should be up to the task. He heads here in great form too after winning at this level at York last time and is also the only proven CD winner in the field. Of the rest, Golden Pass won well last time out at HQ and deserves to take this step up in grade. Red Verdon got back to winning ways last time at Sandown but that came over 2m and I’m not sure this drop back in trip is ideal. The consistent Rodrigo Diaz would probably need to find a bit based on the ratings, so the two other course winners – WITHOUT A FIGHT (e/w) and SLEEPING LION (e/w) – might be worth chancing if you are looking for something at bigger prices.

 

2.55 – BetVictor Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4 

10/10 – Aged between 3-6 (inc)
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/10 – Had won over 7f or further before
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Rated between 90-96 (inc)
7/10 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/10 – Carried between 9-1 and
7/10 – Had raced at Newbury before
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
1/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Won last time out
The last 2 winners came from stall 6

CASUMO KEY TREND: 9 of the last 10 winners had won between 2-4 times

CASUMO VERDICT: The William Haggas yard won this in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018 so their Aiyaall will be popular, while Magical Wish got back to winning ways at Goodwood last time out but is up 3lbs again here. Sunset Bay will have Hollie Doyle riding and was a very easy winner at Sandown last time and also won here two starts ago over this trip. She’s up another 9lbs here though from her last run so despite having every chance will need another step forward. The call here though is the Clive Cox runner – ARATUS, who comes from the Clive Cox yard that won this race 12 months ago. This 3 year-old caught the eye when winning by an easy 7 ½ lengths at Doncaster last month and with just three career runs should have more to come. Adam Kirby rides. 

3.30 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV4  

17/19 – Didn’t win last time out
17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
16/19 – Had won over this 7f trip before
16/19 – Officially rated 108 or more
15/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/19 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
14/19 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
10/19 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/19 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
The last 12 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
Dream Of Dreams (13/8 fav) won the race in 2020
Glorious Journey (10/3) won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015

CASUMO KEY TREND: 17 of the last 19 winners didn’t win last time out 

CASUMO VERDICT: With 17 of the last 19 winners failing to win last time out, this might be seen as a negative for last-time out winners – D’bai, Dreamloper and Danyah. 3 and 4 year-olds have had the best recent record in the race too, winning 15 of the last 19, so the older runners – Motakhayyel, who is the top-rated in the field and D’bai also have this trend against them.  So, the call is AL SUHAIL, who should have come on a fair bit for his return run at Ascot last time out (3rd) in the G2 Summer Mile. That was his first run back since being gelded and the way he stayed on that day to take third suggests he’ll improve a fair bit for the run, plus the Charlie Appleby yard, who also won this in 2019, have a decent 31% record with their 4+ year-olds at the course. The other pick is the William Haggas runner – SACRED (e/w), who should be more at home back in grade after running in the G1 1000 Guineas last time (7th) and also back to 7f. She won the Nell Gwyn Stakes at HQ back in May over this trip and is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past, so the 104-day break isn’t a worry. 

RIPON Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

3.10 – William Hill Silver Trohpy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) Cl2 6f ITV4 

8/8 – Previous winners over 6f
8/8 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
8/8 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
8/8 – Returned between 6/1 and 16/1
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
7/8 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/8 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/8 – Drawn 13 or higher
6/8 – Won between 3-4 times before
6/8 – Winning distance neck or shorter
5/8 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
5/8 – Rated between 87-93
2/8 – Has won at Ripon before
2/8 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/8 – Winning favourites
Growl won the race in 2019
Quick Look won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star won the race in 2017

CASUMO KEY TREND: 6 of the last 8 winners drawn in stalls 13 or higher

CASUMO VERDICT: 20 runners here, but with 6 of the last 8 winners drawn 13 or higher this looks a decent trend to take into the race. If this is to be repeated, John Kirkup, Ehrmann, Troubador, True Blue Moon, Macho Pride, Bossipop, Mythmaker and Ghathanfar are interesting. The Richard Fahey yard have won two of the last 8 runnings too, including the last renewal in 2019 – they have CD winner, Cooperation and Gabrial The Devil in the race. 7 of the last 8 winners were also aged between 4 and 6, so that age trend coupled with the draw stat means TROUBADOR, GHATHANFAR, JOHN KIRKUP, TRUE BLUE MOON and I AM A DREAMER standout. All five are respected, but the Tim Easterby runner – TRUE BLUE MOON (e/w) – is the first one to have onside. This 6 year-old is down another 2lbs from a fair run (4th) at Haydock last time and is starting to look very well-treated – is now a pound lower than last win. Of those drawn low, Ventura Express, Fortamour and Danzan head here off the back of fair runs, but another that’s starting to look well-handicapped is the Paul Midgley-trained I AM A DREAMER (e/w). This 5 year-old seems to run well here at Ripon (CD winner) with his last career win also coming here at the track off a 2lb higher mark. Draw 12 gives him options and PJ McDonald, who rode the horse in his last success, is back in the saddle.

3.45 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4 

17/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/19 – Didn’t win last time out
13/19 – Carried 8-12 or more
13/19 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/19  – Had run at Ripon before (4 won)
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
7/19 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/19 – Aged 4 years-old
6/19 – Winning favourites (5 in the last 8)
3/19 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 10)
3/19 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 8)
1/19 – Aged 3 years-old
Staxton (4/1 fav) won the race in 2020
Dakota Gold (5/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Gunmetal won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 7 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11.5/1 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: The Great St Wilfrid has not been a bad race for the market leaders in recent years – 5 of the last 8 favourites have won. Therefore, recent Goodwood scorer – Mr Wagyu – is one for the shortlist. This John Quinn runner bolted up at Goodwood at the end of last month and despite an 8lb rise seems to still have a lot going for him. Yes, he’s hardly and unexposed type with 53 career runs but at the age of 6 seems to be improving still which is often the case with the sprinters. He’s risen up the ranks over the last year to go from a mark of 71 last October to his current rating of 99. With 8 of the last 15 winners also coming between stalls 8-13, then his 11 berth is another plus. However, STAXTON won the race in 2020 and does seem to love it here at Ripon – he’s won his last three here! He’s rated 4lbs higher than 12 months ago, but won here off just a pound power in April and draw 8 looks okay too. He’s got 7l to make up with the already mentioned Mr Wagyu on his last run, but is 9lbs better off at the weights this time. CD winners Lampang and Abate are proven here, while recent winners Lincoln Park and Mokaatil come here in tip-top order too. But the David O’Meara yard have won three of the last 10 runnings so their MUSCIKA (e/w) (at a big price) and their hat-trick-seeking SOUL SEEKER are the others of interest. The first-named needs to bound back to form, but continues to drop down the ratings and is now a pound lower than his last win and connections have also booked Jo Mason to claim a handy 3lbs. Soul Seeker is on a three-timer after narrow wins at York and Hamilton and even though he’s up another 4lbs here, it’s interesting that the yard have booked Sean Kirrane to ride to claim a handy 5lbs. Of the rest, Music Society has been going close but does seem to find it hard to get over the line in front, while Solider’s Minute and Gale Force Maya are others that can go well. 

 

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