Sweden vs Poland – Euro 2020 Betting Tips

Sweden is hosting Poland in the Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia on the 23rd of June 2021 at 18:30 IST. Poland in desperate need of a win in this game while Sweden would need anything other than a defeat to qualify for the knockouts.

Sweden Form and Team News

Against Slovakia in the second game, Sweden had a penalty which was converted wholeheartedly and managed to keep that lead thus getting a much-needed win under their belt which has taken them to the top of the table. Lucky is one word which we can attribute to Sweden’s game against Spain on Tuesday earlier in the week before last week, Spain were relentless in the game and had over 80 percent possession, it’s not often that a team dominating as such doesn’t end up with goals at the end, but Sweden just managed to do that, they can call it a steal. In the EURO qualification rounds, Sweden were part of Group F. They finished as the number two team in the group with 21 points from ten games played. They won six games while losing just one game in the process. They also did draw three games in the campaign. They were decent throughout the campaign, scoring in goals and also conceded a lesser number as well. The group was topped by Spain who are again part of the same group as that of Sweden in the EURO main group as well. 

Coach Jan Anderson, the Swedish National Football team coach has been guiding the team quite well in the recent past and that is starting to reflect on the results column as well. After a four-match losing streak in the last ten matches, Jan managed to pull the team up and win all their last six of their last seven matches coming into the elite tournament. He will look at one game at a time and get the desired results with the team. The team collectively played as a unit managing to keep the line intact and in turn not allowing Slovakia to score in the last game. 

Poland Form and Team News

Poland could’ve come into this game with a defeat in the last game against Spain, but they did hit back and scored an equalizer thus returning with a point from the game. They now need a win and nothing else to keep them afloat in the competition. Poland were another team that came in with high expectations but are looking set for another competition where they have squandered their chances. They lost against a decent Slovakia side. They now are facing a stronger opposition in Sweden, a loss is out of the question, only a win can help Poland’s cause here on. Poland were superb throughout the qualification rounds even with a set of lesser threatening teams in the group. They showed dominance all through the campaign which was a treat to watch for everyone.  After the ten games played, they won as many as eight matches while losing just one game. They also drew one of the games. They were part of Group G with Austria, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Israel, and Latvia. Poland finished as the number one team in the group with 25 points. They conceded the least number of goals for any team in the group while also managing to strike 18 shots into the net. They have won just two games in the last ten coming into the third game of their EURO 2020 campaign against Sweden away on Wednesday.

Paulo Sousa the Poland national team coach was good during the qualification rounds where they also went on to become the number one side in the group, but their recent record over the past ten matches has been abysmal having won just two games and losing four while drawing the four matches. Sousa would need to bring back what worked for them in the qualifications rounds and not experiment too much with the team composition. Lewandowski scored the only goal against Spain, will he be able to carry the team, is a question that remains and will be answered by none other than the man himself, with Zielinski, Milik, Kownacki, Klich, Bednarek and Szczesny all in the mix, Poland could be in for a chance here against Sweden. 

Odds by Casumo

Poland are the favorites to win according to the Casumo Sportsbook. They are placed at 2.60 odds while Sweden is placed at 2.85. The odds for a draw is 3.25.

Check out our Euro2020 Odds Here

Our Tipster’s Angle

Poland are the favorites to win this tie as per the odds, but if we go with a better head to head record and recent record, Sweden holds the aces. Sweden have been quite lucky in this tournament and Poland have been at the other end of the spectrum. This is most likely going to be an edgy game where Sweden is likely to end up as winners probably.

Tip 1: Total Goals over 2.5

In the case of Poland, in the last eight matches played, they have had six games where the total goals were over 2.5. Playing away across competitions, three of their last five matches also had the total goals to be over 2.5. Four of the last nine matches that Sweden have played across competitions have had the total goals to be over 2.5. While playing at home, Sweden have had one of their last two matches where the total goals have been over 2.5. One of their last two head to head matches also had the total goals to be over 2.5. While playing head to head in Sweden, their last match also had the stat where the total goals were over 2.5. So it’s quite likely the match will have over 2.5 goals. According to the Casumo Sportsbook, the odds for the total goals to be over 2.5 is 2.18.

Tip 2: Total Goals by Sweden Odd

Five of the last seven matches of Sweden have had them scoring goals in odd digits. This is across competitions like the Euro, Int. friendlies, World Cup qualifiers, and the Nations League. Playing at home, they have had four of the last five where the above condition was satisfied. In terms of the head to head battle with Poland, they have two of the last four where they scored in odd digits. While playing at home, in the same head to head matches, two of the last three have also had the Swedish to satisfy the same. Poland on the other hand playing away in the last five matches have conceded goals in odd digits in three games. So it’s quite likely that Sweden to score a total goal tally in odd numbers. The odds for the same according to the Casumo Sportsbook is 2.08.


Poland have to dig deep as they did against Spain to come away with nothing less than a win while Sweden would want to finish at the top of the table with a win here. Summarising on a couple of bets from above:

  1.     Total goals over 2.5 @ 2.18
  2.     Total Goals by Sweden Odd @ 2.08.

Check out our Euro2020 Odds Here

18+ | Please gamble responsibly | begambleaware.org | T&Cs apply 
Sports: All odds are subject to change

Sportsbook welcome bonus to all new players

150% Bonus Up to ₹15K + ₹101 daily for 7 Days for luck

Sign up

18+. New customers. Opt-in required. 150% Deposit Bonus : 150% up to ₹15,000. Min Dep ₹1,000. ₹101 Daily Cash back : ₹101 daily for 7 Days. Min dep ₹1,500. 30x bonus wagering (game weighting applies). T&Cs apply. Play responsibly • begambleaware.org • T&Cs apply