Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Tips and Trends (Sat 19th Feb 22)

Edwardstone, Funambule Sivola and Bravesmangame were more nice winners for our regular Saturday ITV TV horse racing tips last weekend. 

We are back for more this Saturday (19th Feb 22) as the ITV horse racing cameras head Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues. 

At Ascot, we’ve four LIVE ITV races that include the Grade One Ascot Chase (3:35)- a race that Dashel Drasher took 12 months ago and is back for more to defend his title. He’ll be looking to become only the second ever back-to-back winner of the prize. 

Then, at Haydock, the Grand National Trial (2:40) takes centre stage – a contest that’s seen 15 of the last 19 winners aged 10 or younger. 

Finally, at Wincanton we get a chance to see the ‘back-to-form’ Gary Moore-trained Goshen try and win the Grade Two Kingwell Hurdle (3:20) for a second year in a row. 

As always, to help narrow down the fields and hopefully find the winners – here at CASUMO we give you all the key horse racing betting trends and stats ahead of the LIVE ITV races this Saturday 19th February 2022. 

Let’s Get Cracking! 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

19/19 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
16/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
16/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/19 – Won last time out
12/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
9/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Won by the Pipe Stable (2 of the last 7)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/19 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 8)
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 3)

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

CASUMO VERDICT: I expect the front-running Fern Hill, who has been running well of late, to make a bold bid from the front here, but it might be a tough ask in conditions to stay there over this longer 3m trip. The one that is expected to take the beating though is the Kim Bailey-trained DOES HE KNOW. The yard has a decent 28% record with their chasers here at Ascot and a 3-month break would have freshened this 7 year-old up after a busy spell at the end of 2021. He’s won two of his three starts over fences and wasn’t disgraced when second last time at Cheltenham. The softer ground is a small worry, but he’s run well on it over hurdles in the past – the key though is that he’s a horse that goes well off a break, having won off 328-day and 205-day absences in the past. Of the rest, J’Ai Ford is the only course winner in the line-up, but was 12 lengths behind Corach Rambler last time at Cheltenham and before that saw the back of Doyen Breed at Hexham – both those mentioned are entered here again too and certainly have cases. But the danger can come from the Chris Gordon runner – ANNUAL INVICTUS. This 7 year-old was third of 3 at Plumpton last time, but wasn’t beaten far and the winner – Elixir De Nutz – has since franked the form by winning easily at Kempton this month.  

2.25 – GreatBritishStallionShowcase.co,uk Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Finished 5th or better last time out
8/11 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/11 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/11 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/11 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
7/11 – Aged in double-figures
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
4/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/11 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Winning Favourites
2/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-0 or more
Ballyoptic (8/1) won the race in 2020
Regal Encore won the race in 2018, was third in 2019 and second in 2021

CASUMO KEY TREND: 9 of the last 11 winners finished 5th or better last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: FIDDLERONTHEROOF hasn’t quite progressed as many thought after winning the Tolworth Hurdle here in 2020, but he’s held his form well in and around this sort of level and to his credit rarely runs a bad race. He was second to Monkfish at the Cheltenham Festival last season (beaten just 6 ½ lengths) and this season has won at Carlisle and been a close second at Newbury in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Hennessy). He’s up another 5lbs for that run here, but connections have kept him fresh with 3 months off since and having a good record off a break is another plus. Softer/heavy ground is fine too and he’s run well here at Ascot in the past. The Venetia Williams yard have won two of the last five runnings and have their horses in good form – they run Hold That Taught here. Caribean Boy returned to winning ways at Kempton last time out, but I just worry that he had quite a hard race that day and is up another 4lbs. Ask Me Early is a fast-improving 8 year-old that has won his last three so is sure to be popular too. He’s up just 5lbs from the last of those wins and with just 10-8 in weight looks a big player. Fortescue, Cobolobo and CD winner Larry are others that cases can be made, but I’ll also be taking a chance on the old timer – REGAL ENCORE (e/w) – who loves this race. He won the prize in 2018 and has been placed since in 2019 and 2021. He’s no spring chicken at 14 years-old, but is rated 10lbs lower than when runner up 12 months ago and has also had a wind op since his last run, which is interesting. His overall form here at Ascot is very good and so if his old legs can carry him round again, he looks worthy of some e/w interest with just 10-9 to carry.  

3.00 – Dingley’s Promise Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (GBB Race) (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
10/16 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
10/16 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/16 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/16 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/16 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 10 of the last 16 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

CASUMO VERDICT: We get a chance to see the Cross-Country horse – Easysland – in action here, but you feel this is just another prep race ahead of Cheltenham in just over three weeks. The stats tell us that 10 of the last 16 winners had 10-12 or less to carry and finished in the top four last time out. These two trends are good news for Good Risk At All, Zacony Rebel, Piccadilly Lilly and Small Bad Bob. Of that bunch, the Alan King-trained PICCADILLY LILLY makes her UK debut having raced three times in France. She gets in here with just 10-4 in weight and certainly won’t mind the softer ground. It’s hard to know what her French form translates into, but connections have booked Sam Waley-Cohen (part owned by Robert Waley-Cohen) to ride and the fact they are pitching her in here at this level on her first run in this country is interesting. ZACONY REBEL did it well at Ludlow last time out and looks a nice prospect for the Toby Lawes yard – he can go well too. Good Risk At All is sure to run his race and up in trip looks interesting, but has now been second three times and did seem to race a bit awkwardly last time at Warwick. Of the rest, the Nicholls-trained Cap Du Mathan returned from 714-days off to win at Taunton last month, but is up 9lbs for that and his looks harder. Christopher Wood, who is now with Venetia Williams (formerly with Paul Nicholls), and Highway One O Two are others that can’t be ruled out.   

3.35 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

19/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
18/19– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
17/19 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
16/19 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
16/19 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Officially rated 157 or higher
14/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Winning favourites
11/19 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
10/19 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
8/19 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
8/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/19 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/19 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 15 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Dashel Drasher won the race in 2021
Riders On the Storm won the race in 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 18 of the last 19 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting 

CASUMO VERDICT: If making the trip over, then the Joseph O’Brien-trained Fakir D’Oudairies, who is the top-rated in the field, will be the one to beat. He was a nice winner at Clonmel on soft ground in November and hasn’t been disgraced behind the classy Allaho the last twice. Mister Fisher was back in the winners’ enclosure last time out at Kempton and the form of that win has since been fracked with the runner-up Eldorado Allen winning the Denman Chase last weekend. But the worry for me is this will be his first run at Ascot, and it remains to be seen just how much the King George run and that last victory have taken out of him. Fanion D’Estruval can go well for the in-form Venetia Williams yard but with just one win from his last 9 races that would be the worry. So, the two I like here are SAINT CALVADOS and last year’s winner DASHEL DRASHER. The former was travelling really well in the King George last time out but just failed to see out the 3m trip. Therefore, back in distance here is a plus, while that run also came off a 323-day break and was his first after a wind operation. He’s still lightly-raced in recent seasons and his overall chase record is not too shabby (15 runs and 10 top three finishes (5 wins)). Dashel Drasher was a good winner over hurdles at Newbury at the end of December and was only just beaten at Lingfield last time back over fences. He was giving Two For Gold 6lbs that day but they are off level weights here so the form is expected to be reversed. But he’s also back to Ascot – a track he loves – with form figures here reading an impressive 1-1-1-3! Of the rest, we’ve also the 2018 winner of this race – Waiting Patiently – but at 11 he’s not getting any younger and, in fact, his win in his race four years ago was his last success. CD winner Lostintranslation hasn’t really fulfilled his potential for me, while the already mentioned Two For Gold looks a tad overpriced and it would be no shock if he outrun that price. 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

18/19 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/19 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
13/19 – Rated 145 or higher
13/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
12/19 – Aged 8 or younger
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
9/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/19– Had run at Haydock before
6/19 – French-bred
6/19 – Placed favourites
4/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/19 – Winning favourites
1/19 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Third Wind (9/2) won the race in 2021
Emitom (7/4 fav) won the race in 2020
Donna’s Diamond (7/1) won the race in 2018
Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners raced in the last 5 weeks 

CASUMO VERDICT: We’ve the last two winners of this race in Emitom and Third Wind – both have decent chances again and should make bold bids. However, on these terms the 155-rated THOMAS DARBY is hard to ignore. This Olly Murphy runner landed the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November as was a fair fourth after that at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle. This looks easier, while the heavy ground and long Haydock straight will bring his stamina into play. It’s good to see the 11 year-old Wholestone back after a 455-day absence and he must still be showing something at home for connections to be running him at this age. Molly Ollys Wishes gets a handy 7lbs from Third Wind and Thomas Darby, plus she heads here off the back of a nice win at Ascot last time. The worry would be if her stamina holds out on this ground and over this longer trip. TOP VILLE BEN is a course winner that got back to winning ways last time at Lingfield when beating Emitom by 2 ¾ lengths and on similar terms should be able to uphold that form and rates the danger to the selection. 

2.40 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

19/19 – UK-based trained winners
19/19 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
17/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
15/19 – Aged 10 or younger
15/19 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Rated 135 or higher
14/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/19 – Aged 9 or younger
13/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/19 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/19 – Irish-bred winners
5/19 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/19 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
3/19 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/19 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams
5 of the last 7 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 11/1

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger 

CASUMO VERDICT: With the popular grey, Bristol De Mai in the race then this means most of the others will get a chance to race with less than 11st. Only last year’s winner – Lord Du Mesnil – and the consistent Sam Brown will carry 11st+. Bristol De Mai, as we know, loves it here at Haydock and over the years has won here five times. The heavy ground is fine too and a recent close second at Lingfield showed he’s still loving his racing at 11 years-old. His handicap mark of 159 makes him dangerous as he was rated 170 just a few years ago, but the worry would be that he’s only won the once from his last 11 races. Lord Du Mesnil is only a pound higher than when winning this 12 months ago, but since then has struggled to find his form. Sam Brown rarely runs a bad race and a recent second in the Peter Marsh Chase here was another solid effort – he’s now run here twice and won and been second. The betting suggests they’ve all got the former Welsh National winner – Secret Reprieve – to beat, and with just 10-5 he’s got a featherweight. He’ll be better for a run over Christmas in the Welsh National (5th), but he doesn’t look great value for a horse that was beaten 44 lengths last time. Enqarde has to be considered too after a good 10 length win here in December, but is up 9lbs here. I think another of the old-timers – BLAKLION – can go well too. He’s returned to form the last twice to win both times here, will love conditions and despite being up another 9lbs here (rated 145) is still fairly well treated on his old form – rated as high as 161. Mint Condition is another course winner in the line-up, but the other of interest is recent Lingfield scorer – THE GALLOPING BEAR (e/w). He stayed the 3m5f trip in heavy ground well last time and is up just 5lbs. He also won that last race with 11-12 on his back, so with only 10-7 here this will help. He’s also 3-from-3 over fences at the moment so whereas he lacks experience, he’s also got the scope for more improvement.  

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4) 

3.20 – Wincanton Matchbook Betting Exchange Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

18/18 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
17/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/18 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
16/18 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
13/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/18 – Rated 155 or higher
8/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/18 – Trained by Alan King
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/18 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Goshen (10/3) won this race in 2021

CASUMO KEY TREND: 16 of the last 18 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but you feel the Skelton-trained Faivoir and the Tom Symonds runner – Llandinabo Lad – are up against it on these terms. That leaves us with the Pipe-trained Adagio, who was last seen running a blinder after 220-days off to be second in the Greatwood Hurdle. Connections have kept him fresh again with another 3 months off and having won in soft ground in the past then conditions are fine. He’s now had seven runs over hurdles and is yet to finish out of the first two. However, I think the Gary Moore runner- GOSHEN – will have too much for him here. We know this 6 year-old has not been every punters favourite horse as he does need to have all the planets aligned for him to be seen at his best – soft ground and going right-handed are his two big pluses. The good news for punters is that he’s got both those things here, just like he did last time at Sandown too. Add in that he also bolted up by 22 lengths in this race 12 months ago and with similar conditions will be the one to beat again. 

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