Doncaster Racing TV Trends – DAY FOUR (Sat 11th Sept 2021)

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (8th-11th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

As always, here at CASUMO, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past. 

Saturday 11th September 2021

1.45 – Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV3

18/19 – Carried 8-12 or more
16/19 – Had run 5 or more times that season
16/19 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/19 – Won over 6f before
15/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/19 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
13/19 – Run at Doncaster previously
12/19 – Won 4 or more times in their career
12/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/19 – Unplaced Favourites
10/19 – Placed in their last race
9/19 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 9 of last 13 years)
7/19 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/19 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Trained by Charles Hills
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or younger
Stone Of Destiny (16/1) won the race in 2020
A Momentofmadness won the race in 2018 and was 2nd in 2019 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 18 of the last 19 winners carried 8st 12lbs or more 

CASUMO VERDICT: 22 runners here so a tricky race to unravel. 18 of the last 19 winners carried 8-12 or more, so that might be deemed a negative for the bottom seven on the card – Treacherous, A Sure Welcome, Boundless Power, Digital, Mid Winster, Saluti and Embour. Horses from a double-figure stall have done well in recent years too – winning 15 of the last 19. This would be a slight negative for those drawn low – Saluti, Digital, A Sure Welcome, King Of Stars, Hurricane Ivor, Premier Power, Justanotherbottle, Boundless Power and Stone Of Destiny, who won this race 12 months ago. The last-named is now also rated 7lbs higher than 12 months ago. In more recent years, we’ve also seen 9 of 10 winners aged 5 or younger, so of the 22 runners this would be a downside for 10. So, taking all these stats into account the three that I’ll be playing here are – INTRINSIC BOND, MONDAMMEJ and KIND REVIEW. The first-named got raised 10lbs for an easy win at Catterick in July, and even though he’s not won since hasn’t run too badly. The drop back half a furlong will suit and he’s a proven course winner here too. Kind Review has Hollie Doyle booked to ride so that’s the first plus. He’s also been freshened up with a few months off and despite coming 9th last time out, was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths. Finally, Mondammej was a nice winner at Haydock last time out and a 3lb rise for that looks fair. Draw 11 will give this Antony Brittain horse options being in the middle and regular pilot – Cam Hardie – knows the horse well. Others to respect that fall just outside some of the trends are Copper Knight, King Of Stars, Digital and Venturous. 

2.20 – Champagne Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV 

19/20 – Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
17/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Had won over 7f before
16/20 – Won by a Feb or March foal
16/20 – Finished third or better last time out
13/20 – Won last time out
11/20 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or the Curragh last time out
9/20 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
4/20 – Won by Godolphin
4/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/20 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/20 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
Chindit (15/8) won the race in 2020
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

CASUMO KEY TREND: 17 of the last 20 favourites were placed

CASUMO VERDICT: A shame we’ve got just the four runners here, but it still looks a fascinating battle in prospect with the two to focus on being Lusail and the royal runner – REACH FOR THE MOON. The former is already a Group Two winner, having taken the Gimcrack Stakes at York last month and has now won four of his five starts for the Richard Hannon yard. Pat Dobbs continues in the saddle and is 3-from-3 on this 3 year-old colt, while the step up to 7f (from 6f) is fine having also won over this trip in the past. The only niggle is that being a proven G2 winner he has to give 3lbs away to Reach For The Moon. The Queen’s runner was an easy 4 length winner of the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last month and heads here as the top-rated (114) too. Yes, Lusail is rated only a pound lower, but – don’t forget – he’s got to give 3lbs away. I also feel that with the selection having run all his four races over this 7f trip, then that’s in his favour, while a certain Frankie Dettori riding is the icing on the cake. Of the rest, Bayside Boy and Twilight Jet are certainly no back numbers and have shown a good level of form too, but it would be a small shock if they overturned the main pair in the betting.

3.00 – Cazoo Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV3

15/18 – Won 3 or more times before
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/18 – Run 3 or more times that season
15/18 – Won a Group race previously
15/18 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
14/18 – Won over 7f before
13/18 – Aged 4 or older
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Unplaced in their most recent race
10/18 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/18 – Placed horses from stall 1
8/18 – Had run at Doncaster before
5/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4 Irish-trained winners in the last 12 runnings
Wichita (11/4 fav) won the race in 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 10 of the last 18 winners ran at Newbury, Goodwood or Newmarket last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: Glorious Journey was a respectable third in the G2 City Of York Stakes last time out and has to enter the picture, but I can’t help feeling this 6 year-old is just short of this level these days and might find some younger legs too good. Godolphin’s D’bai was a good winner at this level at Meydan in the winter and returned from a break last time at Newbury to run down the field in the G2 Hungerford Stakes. He’s got a bit to find on that run and even though you feel he’ll have improved for it – being it was his first outing for 6 months – others are preferred. Oh This Is Us is a proven CD winner, but has been a bit out of form of late. So, the two I’m going to focus on are the Shadwell runners – Danyah and LANEQASH. The first-named is also a CD winner but is making the leap up from handicap company into Group level. He’s clearly got ability and heads here as the second top-rated in the field, but it’s interesting that Shadwell’s main jockey – Jim Crowley – is opting for their other runner – LANEQASH. This 3 year-old came back from 10 months off last time to run a solid second at Newbury in the Hungerford Stakes. He, therefore had D’bai in behind that day, while there is every reason to expect this Roger Varian runner to have come on for that run. He’s the top-rated in the line-up and being a 3 year-old also gets a hand 4lbs from the older horses – that will be a huge advantage. Rhythm Master makes up the six runners. 

3.35 – Cazoo St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV3

17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
16/19 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had won a Group race before
14/19 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
13/19 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
12/19 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
12/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
11/19 – Officially rated 109 to 115
11/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/19 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
5/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden
4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
3/19 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/19 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 7/1

CASUMO KEY TREND: 17 of the last 19 winners were placed in the top three last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: Onto the main event and the final of the five English Classics of the season for these 3 year-olds. It’s a race the Aidan O’Brien, Godolphin and John Gosden yards have dominated in recent years, and it could be more of the same this season. O’Brien has four of the 10 entries – The Mediterranean, Sir Lucan, Interpretation and High Definition – all four are actually closely matched on the ratings and as we know O’Brien is no stranger to winning these big Classics with one of his second or third strings – having won two of the last four runnings, then these Ballydoyle runners are always going to be popular. We’ve also two other Irish raiders in the race – Fernando Vichi for Donnacha O’Brien and Ottoman Empire for Johnny Murtagh. The last-named was a gutsy winner of the Gordon Stakes last time out at Goodwood – having Sir Lucan ½ length back in second. He’s an improving middle-distance performer, but I’m just not totally sure this step up to 1m6f will suit. Epsom Derby runner-up Mojo Star will be popular too – he’s since won well at Newbury but was entitled to at odds of 1/6 there. He looks the sort to improve over this longer trip too and is sure to go well. But even though HURRICANE LANE was third in the Derby – behind Mojo Star – you feel that his Godolphin horse has improved a lot more since that day on the Downs. He’s gone onto win the Irish and French Derby and the last of those at Longchamp was an impressive 6 length win. He’s up to 1m6f for the first time here, but that last run gives you every indication he’ll stay this extra 2 furlongs – he’s taken to give Godolphin their seventh win in this Classic and their first since Encke in 2012.  Of the rest, both SCOPE, who represents the Ralph Beckett yard who won this in 2015, and YOUTH SPIRIT ran fair races to be 5th and 3rd in the Great Voltigeur at York last time out – that race is a decent trial for this and both could easily improve for the step up in trip.

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