Doncaster Racing TV Trends – DAY THREE (Fri 10th Sept 2021)

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (8th-11th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

As always, here at CASUMO, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past. 

Friday 10th September 2021

1.40 – Cazoo Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV3

11/11 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
9/11 – Won last time out
9/11 – Foaled in March or later
9/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Won over 7f or 1m before
9/11 – Won just once before
7/11 – Winning favourites
7/11 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Drawn in stalls 2 (3) or 5 (3)
5/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/11 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/11 – Trained by John Gosden
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/11 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa
New Mandate (17/2) won this race in 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: ALL of the last 11 winners were drawn in stalls 5 or lower

CASUMO VERDICT: The Tom Dascombe yard are only 2-from-41 with their juveniles at the track so their Mr McCann is overlooked. In contrast, the Owen Burrows yard have a 40% strike-rate with their juveniles here, so their Alflaila enters the mix too. However, it’s interesting that Shadwell Estates number one jockey – Jim Crowley – prefers to ride the Marcus Tregoning runner – RIBHI. This 2 year-old bolted up on debut at Salisbury last month over 6f, but was doing a lot of good work in the closing stages to suggest this step up to 7f is a plus. Godolphin’s Noble Truth was a fair fourth in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York last time, while the likes of Find for the John Gosden yard, Razzle Dazzle, for Richard Hannon, and Hoo Ya Mal, from the Andrew Balding team, all won well last time out and can go well. But the other clear form pick is ELDRICKJONES, who has been running in slightly better races than this. He was last seen running fifth in the G2 Gimcrack Stakes at York – beaten only 2 ¾ lengths – and on that form now dropped into a Listed race would make him the one to beat.  

2.10 – Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV3

17/18 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
14/18 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
14/18 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
13/18 – Won 1-2 times before
13/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Ran at York last time
6/18 – Foaled in April
6/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
5/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/18 – Won last time out
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
Ubettabelieveit (40/1) won the race in 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 7 or lower 

CASUMO VERDICT: The Clive Cox and Eve Johnson Houghton yards both have decent records at the track with their juveniles, so their Caturra and Chipotle are ones for the shortlist. Chipotle is also a proven CD winner here at the track. French raider – Papa Don’t Preach – could be an interesting runner too having run well in a Group Three last time out in France and Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride. But this is a race the Richard Hannon team love to target and have won the prize 5 times in the last 18 runnings. They look to have another big chance this year too with the Ryan Moore-ridden ARMOR. This 109-rated 2 year-old was only beaten 2 ¼ lengths at Deauville last time in the G1 Prix Morny and before that was an easy winner of the G3 Acomb Stakes at Goodwood. He’s also a proven CD winner here, when going in on Town Moor on debut back in April, so with the expected improvement from just four career runs will be hard to beat here if running to that form. Attagirl and The Organiser have started their careers well, but Armor’s biggest danger looks to be CORAZON, from the George Boughey yard. This 2 year-old has won her last two in good fashion gets a handy 3lbs from the main pick too. William Buick has won on her before too and looks the sort to have more to come. 

 

2.40 – Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV3

18/20 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
18/20 – Had 2 or more runs that season
17/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
14/20 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
14/20 – Placed last time out
13/20 – Had won 5 or more times before
13/20 – Aged 6 or younger
12/20 – Previous Group race winners
12/20 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
11/20 – Ran at York last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Unplaced favourites
8/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained in Ireland
Spanish Mission (6/4 fav) won the race in 2020 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 17 of the last 20 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting

CASUMO VERDICT: One of the races of the meeting here as the popular staying Cup horse – Stradivarius – locks horns with new kid on the block in this division – TRUESHAN. Strady took this race for the only time a few years ago and returned to the track last time to win the Lonsdale Cup at York. But he only just scrambled home by a head that day and there have been signs over the last season or so that he might be on a slight decline. That said, he’s still the top-rated in the field and actually gets a handy 2lbs from Trueshan here. However, I feel that the younger legs of the Alan King runner will come out on top. Yes, a lot will depend on the ground, as Trueshan ideally wants a fair bit of cut, but there is rain forecast around the country later in the week – so we’ll see. Obviously, if the ground remains on the quick side, then Trueshan’s connections might pull him out anyway – then it would take a good one to stop Strady. Of the rest, Nayef Road rarely runs a bad race but has seen the back of Strady more times than he’d have liked during his career. With just 8-4 in weight the Prescott runner – Alerta Roja – could be dangerous getting 20lbs from Trueshan. While course winner – RODRIGO DIAZ (e/w) – might be the one to cause the shock if you are looking for something at a bigger price. This David Simcock runner ran well over 2m at Newbury in July – staying on well in the closing stages – to suggest this trip is well worth a crack. Will need to find a bit more based on the ratings, but rarely runs a bad race so if the main two (if they both run) have an off day, he might be the one to take advantage. 

3.15 – Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV3 

18/18 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
17/18 – Had won at least twice before
15/18 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
14/18 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
14/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/18 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/18 – Winning distance 1 length or more
9/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/18 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
7/18 – Ran at York last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Returned a double-figure price
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/18 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/18 – Trained by James Fanshawe
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Apparate (5/1) won this race in 2020  

CASUMO KEY TREND:  17 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: With all of the last 18 winners drawn in stalls 11 or lower, then Uber Cool (12) and Sovereign Duke (13) have this to overcome. 14 of the last 18 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old too, so this is actually only good news for three – KHATM, HMS PRESIDENT and PRINCE ALEX. That said, 17 of the last 18 winners have also been 5 or younger, so we can’t totally rule out the 5 year-olds – Cardano, Future Investment and Rhythmic Intent. With that in mind, the Stuart Williams-trained RHYTHMIC INTENT (e/w) is the first pick. This 5 year-old ran on well last time out at York over 1m4f and was only beaten 2 ¼ lengths at the line. Therefore, this step up in trip is a plus and Hollie Doyle, who got a good tune out of the horse last time, remains in the saddle. KHATM is interesting too and looks another that’s worth a try over this longer trip. His best form to date has been on the AW track, but in his defence has only raced twice on the grass. He stayed on well over 1m2f here at Donny last month and has since run well to be a close second at Newcastle on the AW – with only 8-11 in weight he could be dangerous. Of the rest, Lucky Deal represents the Mark Johnston yard that have won this race twice since 2012, so is another to note, while the consistent Speedo Boy looks to have a fair e/w chance, while the Irish raider Sevenna Star is also sure to be popular with only 8-11 to carry and making the trip over from the Emmet Mullins yard, who have also booked Andrea Atzeni to ride. 

3.45 – Cazoo Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6 1/2f ITV3 

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
11/11 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
10/11 – Aged 5 or younger
10/11 – Won over 6f and 7f
10/11 – Won between 2-4 times
10/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
8/11 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
7/11 – Had run at Doncaster before
7/11 – Carried between 8-10 and 8-13 in weight
7/11 – Irish bred 
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/11 – Winning favourites
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
Tranchee (7/2) won this race in 2020  

CASUMO KEY TREND: ALL of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: With ALL of the last 11 winners of this race ‘not’ winning last time out, then this would be a negative for recent scorers – Raatea and Desert Doctor. We’ve also seen 10 of the last 11 winners aged 5 or younger, which might be seen as a negative for the older horses in the race – Desert Doctor, Bernardo O’Reilly and Kimifive. No winners from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings either – not good for Lampang. Able Kane will be popular and ticks a lot of boxes with Oisin Murphy riding, but I would just be a tiny bit worried about the extra half a furlong here. Gale Force Maya, Mitrosonfire and course winner Zip are others to have on your radar, but the two picks are ASJAD and CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD (e/w). The former has only had three career runs but returned to the track last time at Ffos Las to run a head second to Desert Doctor. This Roger Varian runner is 2lbs better off this time and with just three career runs can be expected to have more scope for improvement. Chairmanoftheboard hasn’t won for over a year, but as a result has dropped back to a fair mark and is now rated a pound lower than when last winning back in July 20. There has been signs of a return to form in recent runs too at HQ, Windsor and Thirsk, plus we also know he stays a bit further than this 6 ½ furlong trip   

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