Glorious Goodwood Day 5

Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: Day 2

It’s Panama hats, Pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 27th July to Sat 31st July 2021). As always, the West Sussex track can expect decent crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

Here at Casumo, we’ll be on-hand each day throughout the meeting – giving you the key trends and our free tips for the LIVE ITV races.

We continue into DAY TWO with five more LIVE ITV races that are spearheaded by the Group One Sussex Stakes. Did you know? 18 of the last 20 Sussex Stakes winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out and had previously won over a mile.


Let’s get cracking! 


DAY TWO Wednesday 28th July 2021

1.50 –Unibet ’15 To Go’ Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

17/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
11/17 – Rated between 84-93
11/17 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
10/17 – Won over 1m4f previously
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
7/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/17 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 15 winners came from stall 10 or lower
2020 Winner: Mambo Nights (9/1)

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won 4 of the last 9 runnings 

CASUMO VERDICT: With 11 of the last 15 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower then this might be seen as a negative for the four horses drawn high – Nagano, General Lee, Vina Bay and Irish Legend. It’s also another race the Mark Johnston yard have done well in – winning 4 of the last 9 runnings and they are mob-handed again this year with four of the 14 runners – GLEN AGAIN, ANNANDALE, CHASE THE DOLLAR and KINGS PRINCE. Of that bunch, Ryan Moore, who also has a good record in this race, catches the eye riding Glen Again and with only 8-9 in weight to carry could be dangerous. He’s been running really consistently all season and certainly won’t mind if there is anymore rain having won on soft ground at Nottingham back in May. Chase The Dollar also gets in here with a very low weight (8-2) and has a similar consistent profile to his stablemate too. He hasn’t raced on ground that is soft or worse, but has gone okay on ‘good-to-soft’ to suggest it’s worth a crack. With his featherweight he’s another to have onside. Of the rest, the Frankie/Gosden runner – Pied Piper for the Queen ticks a lot of boxes too, while Godolphin’s Siskany is another that won’t mind the ground and wasn’t disgraced when fourth at Royal Ascot last time out in the King George V Stakes Handicap. Fabilis and recent Windsor scorer General Lee have the form to go well too, but the other pick is the Haggas-trained – KOLISI. He was an easy winner at Salisbury last time out and has handled cut in the ground well twice before too. He’s only had three career runs so is unexposed for this handicap debut. Tom Marquand rides and breeding suggests he can only get better now upped in trip to 1m4f. 


2.25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV 

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/12 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/12 – Won over at least 7f before
10/12 – Officially rated 100+
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
7/12 – Irish-bred
4/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/12 – French-trained winners (3 of the last 5)
4/12 – Had won at the track before
3/12 – Winning favourites
2020 Winner: One Master (6/4)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: The William Haggas yard won this race in 2020 and they look to have another leading chance this year with SACRED. This classy 3 year-old mare was last seen running 7th in the 1000 Guineas at HQ, but prior to that was a tidy winner of the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes. She’s been kept fresh for this since then so will head here ready to go again and has also handled a bit of cut in the past. She’s the top-rated in the field at 108 but also gets a handy 4lbs age allowance off the older horses which further adds to her chance – Tom Marquand rides. The Charlie Fellowes yard have a strong hand too with CD winner Onassis and Vadream in the race – these useful mares are rated 105 and 106 respectively, while Vadream, who was only beaten 3 ½ lengths in the 1000 Guineas, also gets the age weight allowance – of the Fellowes pair she looks the better one. Isabella Giles is another proven CD winner in the race and should go well now dropped back into this grade – she’s been running in better races of late. Lavender’s Blue, Agincourt and Bounce The Blues are others to note, while the likes of Meu Amor and Passionova have done little wrong in recent runs, but will need more stepping up in grade now. But the other pick is actually last season’s runner-up in this race – VALERIA MESSALINA (e/w). Over from the Irish yard of Jessie Harrington, this 4 year-old was beaten only a short head in this contest last time season so we know the track suits. She may have softer ground to cope with here but has gone okay with cut in the past and the tongue-tie on for the first time catches the eye too. 

3.00 – Markel Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

17/19 – Had won over 5f before
16/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
13/19 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
12/19 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/19 – Winning distance – 1 lengths or less
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas
Horse from stall 1 has finished in the top 3 in 7 of the last 12 runnings
2020 Winner: Steel Bull (2/1 fav)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners had run in the last 4 weeks

CASUMO VERDICT: The Windsor Castle Stakes winner at Royal Ascot – Chipotle – will be trying to bounce back from being a beaten favourite in the Weatherbys Super Sprint last time out, but likely softer ground here will also not be ideal and so he’s overlooked here. This is a race the Richard Hannon yard have done well in so their ARMOR (e/w) can’t be discounted. But he was 2 ¾ lengths behind Chipotle last time at Ascot and is unproven on softer ground. That said, Ryan Moore is back in the saddle today and he rode this horse to it’s debut win at Doncaster in April, while breeding suggests he’ll stay further so any give in the ground might actually be a plus and bring his stamina into play. Mojomaker, Boonie, Arboy Will and Kaboo are others to note in the betting, but the main pick is the Edward Bethell runner – FEARBY. This juvenile has won his last two and was very impressive in winning a Listed race at Sandown last time out – beating another of today’s runners – Mojomaker – by an easy 5 lengths. That came with a bit of give underfoot too, so any rain will be fine – he looks a speedy and very exciting 2 year-old for the yard and is taken to be a big player again here.  

3.35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV 

18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/20 – Won over 1m before
17/20 – Had won 4 or more times during their career
16/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/20 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/20 – Has Won a Group One previously
11/20 – Winning favourites
10/20 – Aged 3 years-old
4/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/20 – Aged 4 years-old
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 3-5 (inc)
2020 Winner: Mohaather (3/1)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 18 of the last 20 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: The clear form pick is the Jim Bolger-trained – POETIC FLARE – who has already landed the G1 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes this season. The last of those wins was an impressive 4 ¼ success – a win that saw her rating shot up to 122. Softer ground should be fine too – he won on soft/heavy on debut at Naas back in 2000 and also ran a close second in the Irish Guineas on deeper ground. Tilsit and Century Dream are the two proven CD winners in the field but both have a bit to prove on the ratings with the main pick. Snow Lantern, who won the G1 Falmouth Stakes last time at HQ, renews rivalry with Alcohol Free, who was a close third in that race. There shouldn’t be much between the pair, but if the ground turns up softer here, then ALCOHOL FREE (e/w) could reverse that form. She landed the G1 Coronation Cup at Royal Ascot on heavy ground in June – beating Snow Lantern by 1 ½ lengths. She gets a handy 3lbs from Poetic Flare, plus 11lbs off the 4+ year-olds in the race. Of the rest, it would be foolish to overlook the Aidan O’Brien runners – Lope Y Fernandez and Order Of Australia – the pair finished 2nd and 8th in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. You feel fair runs are on the cards again from these two, but also feel they may just be shy of this G1 level. If you want one at a big price that could outrun his odds, then it’s interesting the French yard of Andre Fabre send over DUHAIL (e/w). This 5 year-old has been placed in the top two in his last six races and certainly won’t mind the ground if it gets any softer. 

4.10 – British Stallion Studs Alice Keppel EBF Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10/GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo) 5f ITV 

Only 2 previous running
Trainer Charlie Appleby won this race in 2020
Trainer Mark Johnston won this race in 2019
Trainer William Haggas has a 30% record with his 2 year-olds at the track
Trainer Simon/Ed Crisford are 2-from-4 (50%) with their 2 year-olds at the track


CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer William Haggas has a 30% record with his 2 year-olds at the track. 

CASUMO VERDICT: Course winner Flotus represents the Simon and Ed Crisford yard who should enjoy this drop in grade. She’s also been running a bit free in recent races over 6f, so the drop back to 5f is a big plus. However, she’s not handled the softer ground well in the past so any more rain wouldn’t be ideal. La Feile won well on debut for the Richard Fahey yard earlier this month and that came on soft ground. This will be harder, but she should have more to come. The two I’m going to focus on though are VERTIGINOUS (e/w) and the William Haggas runner – CANONIZED. The former ran well to be fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last time at a big price and Ryan Moore catches the eye in the saddle. Softer ground would be an unknown, but connections must feel it’ll be okay. Canonized will be popular too with a couple of nice recent wins to her name. From the William Haggas yard that have a 30% record with their juveniles at the track and this 2 year-old has also got winning form here at the track. Another that softer ground would be an unknown her breeding gives some hope on that score with her dam a heavy ground winner. Of the rest, the Charles Hills yard introduce Willoughby Bay here and she must be showing up well at home to come here first time out.


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