Glorious Goodwood Free Tips and Trends: Day 5

It’s Panama hats, Pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 27th July to Sat 31st July 2021). As always, the West Sussex track can expect decent crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

Here at Casumo, we’re on-hand each day throughout the meeting – giving you the key trends and our free tips for the LIVE ITV races.

We continue into DAY FIVE with five more LIVE ITV races, with the Group Two Lillie Langtry Stakes and the Stewards’ Cup two of the highlights. 

Did you know? 17 of the last 18 Stewards’ Cup winners were aged 6 or younger and had won at least 3 times before in their careers.  

Let’s get cracking! 

DAY FIVE – Saturday 31st July 2021

1.20 – Thames Materials Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV

11/11 – Carried 9-4 or less
9/11 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
9/11 – Won over 7f before
8/11 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
8/11 – Won 2 or 3 times before
8/11 – Rated between 91-96
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/11 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
2/11 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/11 – Winning favourites
2020 Winner: Society Lion (5/4 fav) 

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 8 of the last 11 winners were drawn in stalls 7 or lower and had won 2 or 3 times before

CASUMO VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard have a fair record in the race so their Ryan Moore-ridden Red Mirage will be trying to improve that record, but after winning nicely at Kempton and Chelmsford earlier in the season has struggled a bit off his higher mark. The Andrew Balding team boasts a 24% record with their 3 year-olds at the track – they run Oo De Lally, who is the top-rated in the field. Godolphin’s Quintillus is respected, while recent scorers Farasi Lane and Master Zoffany head here in winning form. But the two I like here are SPIRIT OF BERMUDA and RUN TO FREEDOM (e/w). The former has won her last two in good fashion at Leicester and Newmarket. Is up just 2lbs for the last of those, but is also the only CD winner in this field after scoring here on debut last July. Then Run To Freedom hails from the Henry Candy yard that boast a decent 42% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. This colt didn’t run too badly last time at Sandown, but was slowly away that day and didn’t really settle thereafter. He’s had a nice break since and having been sent off favourite for that last race indicates he’s better than what we saw last time. 

1.55 – Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

16/17 – Didn’t win their last race
16/17 – Had won over 6f previously
15/17 – Raced at Goodwood previously
14/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Won at least 3 times during their career
12/17 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
12/17 – Favourites unplaced
9/17 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
8/17 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/17 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
3/17 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/17 – Favourites (one in the last 14 years)
1/17 – 3 year-old winners
2020 Winner: Treacherous (7/1)
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 13 or lower
14 of the last 15 winners carried 9-0 or more
10 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings

CASUMO KEY TREND: 9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 13 or lower

CASUMO VERDICT: With only one winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings this might be seen as a negative for Mokaatil. We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race back for more – TREACHEROUS (e/w) – who is up 4lbs from that win last season. He’s not won a race since but has run well in defeat the last twice and does seem to save his best for this track – he’s 2-from-2 here! With 14 of the last 15 winners carrying 9st or more this would be against the bottom six on the card – Music Society, Thegreatestshowman, Show Me Show Me, Abduction, Be Proud and The Lamplighter. Looking at the draw, with 9 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower this might be something to note, while don’t worry if your fancy comes here slightly out of form – 12 of the last 17 winners finished 4th or worse last time out. The recent winners in the field are First Folio, Bickerstaffe and Mamillius. There isn’t really an age trend either with the last 10 winners ranging from 3 to 9 years-old. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding for Mick Appleby too – Zim Baby – but you really could make a case for many here. The other three we’ll take a chance on though are ABLE KANE, ROYAL SCIMITAR and OPEN WIDE. The former was way too keen at Windsor last time out but was sent off as favourite that day and won well the time before at Leicester. If able to forgive that run could easily bounce back from draw 13. Royal Scimitar returned to form with a fair fourth last time at Newmarket and comes from the Clive Cox yard that won this race in 2013. Then Open Wide, who is drawn 3, wasn’t beaten far at Lingfield last time out and with the useful Saffie Osborne riding this time to claim a handy 5lbs that will help.  

2.30 – Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

17/18 – Had won at least twice before
16/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/18 – Carried 9-7 or more
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 90-100
10/18 – Placed favourites
9/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
6/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
2020 Winner: Hochfeld (15/2)

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won 6 of the last 18 runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: Another race the powerful Mark Johnston yard have done well in over the years – winning 6 of the last 18. This year they’ve got two entries again – The Trader and also last year’s winner of the race Hochfeld. The current champ is, however, rated 8lbs higher this year so has a lot more in his plate. Therefore, a chance is taken on THE TRADER (e/w), who does have a bit of an up and down profile, but isn’t too badly treated at the moment and his last run was a slightly better (7th of 12 at Haydock). He’ll be tackling this longer trip for the first time but has won over 1m5f in the past. 14 of the last 18 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old, so this might be a negative for the older runners in the field – On To Victory, Hochfeld, Urban Artist, and Nuits St George. Win O’Clock, Rhythmic Intent, Boss Power and My Frankel all ran well last time out and the Prescott runner – BODYLINE (e/w) who hasn’t been out for 317 days is interesting for this shrewd handler off a light weight. He was last seen winning well at Yarmouth last September and is only 5lbs higher. The fact he’s been kept off the track since suggests the yard might be trying to protect his mark and the yard are no strangers to getting one ready first time out. The final one of interest is FUTURE INVESTMENT (e/w). This Ralph Beckett runner was only just touched off by a nose at Ascot last time out. He’s hit the frame in 8 of his 14 career starts (3 wins) and stays further than this 1m6f, which will help if conditions get any worse with the ground.  

3.05 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

16/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/18 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
14/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/18 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Tom Queally
9 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
Enbihaar has won the last two runnings
2020 Winner: Enbihaar (1/2 fav)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 12 of the last 18 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: The clear form pick here is the talented David Menuisier-trained WONDERFUL TONIGHT. We last saw her winning the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, when powering away to beat Broome by 1 ½ lengths. She loves soft ground and is likely to get that again here. She’s won over this 1m6f trip in the past too and being a Group One winner in the past should find this drop in grade to her liking, despite having to give a bit of weight away. The main danger might be Albaflora, but this Ralph Beckett runner was 6 lengths behind Wonderful Tonight last time at Ascot so has a lot of ground to make up. Believe In Love won well at Leopardstown last time out and is also a course winner, she’s considered too for the places, but I feel the Aidan O’Brien-trained DIVINELY (e/w) can improve now upped in trip after staying on well over 1m4f last time in the Irish Oaks. Of the rest, Golden Pass, Tribal Craft and the only CD winner in the field Makawee are the others that have claims to hit the places. 

3.40 – Unibet Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Had won over 6f before
17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
17/18 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
16/18 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
12/18 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
11/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/18 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/18 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/18 – Raced at Goodwood before
9/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/18 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
3/18 – Winning 3 year-olds
2020 Winner: Summerghand (22/1)
12 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure draw

CASUMO KEY TREND: 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: Super competitive as always. The first trend to note is that 17 of the last 18 winners have been aged 6 or younger. This is not good news for the older horses – Chiefofchiefs, Summerghand, who won this race last season, Mr Lupton, Danzeno, Major Jumbo, Gulliver and Justanotherbottle. 12 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure draw too, so this is another trend to take into account. Expect the front-running Punchbowl Flyer to make a bold bid from the front – he won’t mind the softer ground either but is up 6lbs from his last win at Windsor. The hat-trick seeking EJTILAAB has switched from the Ian Williams yard to Charlie Fellowes. He’s up 8lbs for his last win at Newcastle, however, could be up to the task looking a fast-improving sprinter. Last year’s winner Summerghand has been running in better races than, but is only rated a pound higher this year and can’t be ruled out being one of the class acts in the race. Atalanta’s Boy is the only other CD winner in the field, but needs to bounce back from some average runs of late. Desert Safari has won well in his last two race at Goodwood and the form of this recent third here to Lord Riddiford on Tuesday was a sign he could be returning to form. Fresh and Hurricane Ivor have both been popular in the betting in the build-up to this race and have to be considered for the James Fanshawe and William Haggas yards, that have both won this race before. The other picks though are MOTAGALLY (e/w) and MERAAS (e/w). The first-named didn’t get the best of runs last time out at Beverley but still ran on well to take second behind the speedy Caspian Prince. He’s down a pound here and Jim Crowley rides. Meraas, for trainer Mark Johnston, won’t mind the softer ground and ran well to be a fair 6th in this race 12 months ago. He’s rated 3lbs lower this time and Ryan Moore in the saddle this time can help bridge that gap. 

 

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