Ascot tips and trends

Horse Racing TV Tips and Trends for Saturday 2nd October 2021

Saturday Horse Racing TV Tips and Trends (2nd October 2021)

More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras cover seven races across three venues – Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar.

At Redcar, we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 19 years. Then at Ascot, we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know? 16 of the last 18 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

Like all big race days, here at CASUMO we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.  

Let’s Get Cracking! 

Saturday 2nd October 2021

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.05 – Oakman Group Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

16/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
16/16 – Won over 5f before
15/16 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/16 – Rated 101 or higher
10/16 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/16 – Unplaced last time out
8/16 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
8/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
3/16 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/16 – Trained by Michael Dods (last three runnings)
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Dakota Gold (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019 and 2020
12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Michael Dods has won the last three runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: Trainer Michael Dods has won the last three runnings of this race and the last two with Dakota Gold, who goes again this year. But this 7 year-old is yet to win a race this year and at the age of 7 time some might argue that time is catching up with him. He was also 6 lengths behind Tis Marvellous last time at Beverley so despite being 3lbs better off here has a bit of ground to make up on that Clive Cox runner. Hurricane Ivor is linked in with Tis Marvellous too – having beaten that horse a length last time at Newbury – there shouldn’t be much between the two with Tis Marvellous on 2lb better terms this time, but the William Haggas runner looks an improving sprinter and is taken to uphold the form. However, a chance is taken on the Owen Burrows runner – MINZAAL, who returns to the track from just over a year out. This 3 year-old was last seen running a fair third in the G1 Middle Park Stakes last time at Newmarket and being a 3 year-old gets a handy 5lbs from Hurricane Ivor. He should be fully wound up for this return to the track and if picking up where he left off looks a big player. Significantly, Keep Busy and the hattrick-seeking King Of Stars are others to respect but despite having a bit to find on recent runnings, the current champion – DAKOTA GOLD (e/w) – is also worth having a saver on – purely because he’s loved this race in the past. 

2.40 – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

17/18 – Finished fourth or better last time out
16/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Won at Listed or Group class before
13/18 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
11/18 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
11/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/18 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Favourites to win
6/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
1/18 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Morando (2/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 18 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old

CASUMO VERDICT: The top-rated Hukum will be popular here and it’s hard to see him not being involved. However, he’s got to give weight away all round and showed he’s vulnerable last time when beaten at heavy odds-on in a G3 at Kempton. With that in mind he’s taken on. CD winner, Quickthorn has to be considered after keeping on well in a Conditions race at Salisbury last time out, while the consistent pair of Alignak and Alounak have cases too. But the picks here are TITLE, for Roger Varian and ILARAAB (e/w), from the William Haggas camp. The former was a tidy winner at Doncaster last time out and despite that only being a handicap ran well at Group and Listed level earlier this season. He was gelded just before that last race and that seems to have improved him. Ilaraab was a close third at Newbury in a G3 last time out and with only four runs this year should be fresher than most. He gets a handy 3lbs from Hukum too and if improving slightly on that last effort can make his presence felt. 

3.15 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

12/12 – Won over 6f previously
12/12 – Officially rated 100 or higher
10/12 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/12 – Won 4 or more times previously
10/12 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/12 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/12 – Won their previous race
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
4/12 – Favourites to win
2/12 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Roger Charlton
The last 2 winners came from stalls 6
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 9 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 9 runnings

CASUMO KEY TREND: 5 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 5 or 7

CASUMO VERDICT: GLEN SHIEL is the top-rated in the field at 115 and even though this Archie Watson runner hasn’t won this year, he’s been knocking on the door in much better races. The key to him though is the return to Ascot – a track that he seems to run his best races at. Any rain would be a plus too and having been running at the top G1 level will find this ease in grade more to his liking. Summerghand has had a good season and having run okay (8th) with a big weight in the Ayr Gold Cup will find this return to graded company a help with the weights more even. Great Ambassador and Tabdeed are closely-matched on recent form, after running first and second at York earlier this month. Bielsa is another in-form runner that returned to winning ways to take the Ayr Gold Cup last time out in good fashion. This is a step up in grade, but had Great Ambassador 2 ¼ lengths back that day. The runner-up is 8lbs better off this time though – both look big players though. The other of interest though are DILIGENT HARRY (e/w) and VADREAM (e/w). The former is yet to finish out of the top three from just 6 starts and was last seen running a neck second at Newbury in a G3. He’s fresh from 2 ½ months off and can go well. Vadream was third here in the Jersey Stakes (G3) and despite not winning this year has run some solid races at this level since. Trip and ground are fine and being a 3 year-old gets weight from the older horses.  

3.50 – tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4 

17/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/18 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
15/18 – Won over 7f previously
13/18 – Had raced within the last 30 days
13/18 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/18 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
6/18 – Raced at Ayr last time out
5/18 – Favourites to win
2/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Won their previous race
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
The last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 12 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 12 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The last two winners came from stall 17
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
Kynren (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Raising Sand (5/1) won the race in 2018 and was third in 2017
Accidental Agent won the race in 2017 

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 18 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old 

CASUMO VERDICT: 18 runners here, so super competitive, but plenty of useful trends. The last six winners were aged 6 or younger, so this would be a negative for the 2017 winner of the race Accidental Agent, Escobar and Documenting. Oo De Lally is the only last time out winner in the field so has to be respected, but is up 2lbs for that success. The Gosden camp won this in 2012 and have two entered in Al Rufaa and FUNDAMENTAL (e/w). The former was a decent second at Sandown last time out and is in here off the same mark. But their other runner – Fundamental – looks the better value. Yes, he needs to improve on his last run but that came in a Listed race so this drop back into a handicap will help. He’s run well at the track before too and any rain wouldn’t be an issue. Of the rest, CD winner – Aldaary – and course winner Fresh – are ones for the shortlist, but the other pick is the Clive Cox runner – RIVER NYMPH. This Clive Cox runner returned from a 3-4 month break to be fourth at Newbury a few weeks ago and will be much better for that. He won the Victoria Cup here over this course and distance in May on softer ground, so any more rain is fine. In fact, he’s 2-from-2 here at the track, having won here in July 20 too. Draw 7 looks okay and when looking back on his last run he was actually struck into by another horse that day and lost a shoe too – therefore, to finish as close as he did was a solid effort.  

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.45 – British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/5 – Favourites placed in the first three
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
3/5 – Won just once before
2/5 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/5 – Winning favourites

CASUMO KEY TREND: 4 of the last 5 winners DIDN’T win last time out 

CASUMO VERDICT: The Stoute yard won this race in 2018 and try to follow-up here with Swoon. This 3 year-old has won his last two at Wolves and Carlisle in good fashion and is into a handicap for the first time here today. Oisin Murphy is booked and there looks likely to be more to come. Andrew Balding has a leading chance too with the consistent Achelois and you feel there is more to come from the Roger Varian runner – Ensemble (yard won this in 2016) – too. In a race that there are many likely improvers – Talbeyah, Ms Gandhi and Princess Nadia – are others to note. The call though is EVIDENT BEAUTY and STATE OCCASION (e/w). The last-named ran on well to take second at Ascot last time out over a mile so this step up in trip to 1m2f looks a good move. Evident Beauty was a beaten favourite at Haydock last time out but the winner that day looks above average and that was still only this horse’s fourth career run. There should be more to come from her and Ryan Moore catches the eye in the saddle. 

 

2.20 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
6/6 – Foaled Feb or later
5/6 – Rated between 79-85
5/6 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
4/6 – Won from a double-figure draw
4/6 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
4/6 – Won just one before
3/6 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
1/6 – Winning favourites 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 4 of the last 6 winners came from a double-figure draw 

CASUMO VERDICT: A valuable auction sales race here with £80k on offer to the winner for these 2 year-olds. Some promising sorts on show, including Favourite Girl, Ernie’s Valentine, Clarets Glory and Tatsumaki, but it’s hard to ignore the 104-rated FEARBY here and on the form he’s shown this season will be hard to beat. He’s been running well at Group level and was an easy 5 length Listed winner at Sandown in July. He was last seen running a close third in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury a few weeks ago and a repeat of that run would make him very hard to beat. Of the rest, the Hannon yard often do well in these sorts of races and won this in 2017 – they run Holiday, Goldenhurst, Zoom and FODEN. The last two-named look their most interesting, but a chance is taken on Foden, who gets in here with a light weight (8-7) and caught the eye when winning easily at Lingfield last time out back in June (5 ½ lengths).


2.55Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

 

15/17 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/17 – Previous Group winners
12/17 – Won between 3-5 times before
13/17 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Rated between 113 and 119
12/17 – Previous Group One winners
8/17 – Aged 3 years-old
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/17 – French-trained winners
6/17 – Raced at Deauville last time out
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 15 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 11 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 9 or lower 

CASUMO VERDICT: A tough race to call with Mother Earth and Sky Lantern two of the main players. The pair were separated by just ½ a length here on the July course in the Falmouth Stakes in July – with Sky Lantern coming out on top that day. Mother Earth is, however, back on the Rowley Mile though – the scene of her 1,000 Guineas win in May. You really could make a case for either and it will be a shock if both are not involved. But a chance is taken on SAFFRON BEACH (e/w). This Jane Chapple-Hyam 3 year-old was only a length behind Mother Earth in the Guineas too and despite not backing that up since, the return to the Rowley Mile is a big plus – her form figures here read 1-1-2-2. Softer ground, if the rain comes, is fine too having won on soft ground at the track too – she’s taken to bounce back to form. No Speak Alexander was a surprise winner of the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out and had Mother Earth back in third that day. She’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke, but the Jessie Harrington yard have been in good order recently and she can’t be ignored. Of those at bigger prices, Lavender’s Blue was a nice winner at Goodwood last time out and the form of that has been franked since with the runner-up Benbatl going in since – she’d want the ground to remain on the quick side though. Fev Rover is other to respect, but PRIMO BACIO (e/w) could be interesting if bouncing back. She ran too bad to be true over 7f last time but the quick ground that day wasn’t ideal. Things should be more to her liking here on a softer surface and this season before that last run wasn’t beaten far by both Mother Earth and Snow Lantern to back up that on her day, she can mix it with the best fillies around. Oisin Murphy takes the ride.


Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

3.35 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

16/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
14/19 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/19 – Foaled in March or later
10/19 – Had won over 6f before
10/19 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Filly winners
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/19 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/19 – Trained by Stan Moore
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners had 4+ runs that season 

CASUMO VERDICT: Another decent pot up for grabs for these 2 year-olds, but it’s a race the Richard Fahey yard have done well in over the years so their VINTAGE CLARETS gets the nod. This juvenile sets a fair standard having run well in Group Two and Listed races this season and also gets in here with just 8-9 to carry. The only niggle would be that he’s yet to win over this 6f trip, with all successes to date coming over 5f. But he was only beaten just over 4 lengths in the G2 Gimcrack Stakes at York in August and a repeat of that run would make him hard to stop. His main dangers look to be Chipotle, who has a similar profile to the selection, having run okay in Group races, but this Eve Johnson Houghton runner has to give 6lbs away to the selection. It’s interesting that the Tom Dascombe yard are mob-handed with Glittering Choice, Mot And The Messer and Roman Dragon running, while Last Crusader has shown a good level of form this season to suggest he’ll be in the mix. The other pick though is the Richard Hannon runner – SYMPHONY PERFECT. Just the one win from 8 runs, but all her runs have been solid and she’s not been beaten far each time. Any rain would be an unknown but gets in with just 8-7 in weight and the useful Jason Watson has been booked to ride. 

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