Newmarket July Meeting Betting Trends & Tips – Day 1

The three-day 2021 Newmarket July Meeting is the highlight this week – running from Thursday 8th till Saturday 10th July. 

Here at Casumo, we’ll be with you through the fixture to cover all the main races with key trends and our verdicts. 

We get going on DAY ONE, with four LIVE races with the Group Two contests – Princess Of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes and the July Stakes – the main events. 

Let’s get cracking………………

 

Newmarket July Meeting – Day One, Thursday 8th July 2021 

 

1.50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV4

19/19 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
16/19 – Failed to win last time out
16/19 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/19 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
11/19 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/19 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/19 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 10 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Winners that came from stall 1

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 10 runnings 

CASUMO VERDICT: The Brian Meehan-trained Mandoob has done nothing wrong in winning his first two career starts but this is a big step up in grade so he’ll have to improve again. The Mark Johnston runner – Gear Up – will be popular and is the top-rated in the field. He bounced back from a poor run in the Derby to run a close fifth in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and being dropped slightly in class should find this easier. But Johnston also has DIAMOND KING in the race, who was only beaten 5 lengths in the Queen’s Vase at Ascot last time – he also didn’t get the best of runs that day so could have got closer, while this is also an ease in grade, plus the drop in trip slightly will help. Pleasant Man needs to find a bit more based on the ratings, but was a nice winner at Salisbury last time and could have more in the locker, but the other pick is the Gosden/Dettori runner – STOWELL. The yard has a good record in this race – winning it three times since 2011 – and even though this 3 year-old has 5lbs to find with Gear Up on the ratings he’s lightly-raced and should have more improvement to come. He was last seen running a cracking third in the G2 Queen’s Vase, so his form is linked in with Diamond King too. He stayed on well that day, so I expect Frankie and connections to make better use of that proven stamina here and is taken to go well. 

 

 

2.25 – Tattersalls July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
17/19 – Placed in their last run
16/19 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
15/19 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
11/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
10/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/19 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 19 winners returned 9/2 or shorter

CASUMO VERDICT: A chance to see some of the potential stars of the future here for this Group Two juvenile contest. The Alan King runner – Asymmetric – was a nice winner over course and distance last time so has that experience of the track as an advantage, but this is a step up in class here so would need more too. Ryan Moore riding the Kevin Ryan-trained Aleezdancer catches the eye and this 2 yar-old heads here having won his last two in good fashion. Lusail is another to consider, having won two of his three career starts, including one here on the July course. Ebro River and Tolstoy, for Frankie Dettori, who has a good record in the race, both ran fair races in the Coventry Stakes last time out so are others to note. However, the two that we’ll be siding with are JADHLAAN and PROJECT DANTE. The former was a smooth winner at York last month over 5f – winning by 2 ¾ lengths that day. He was eased in the final stages too, so it could have been double that distance. Yes, this is a step up in grade, but he looks a useful 2 year-old in the making and the Johnston yard won this in 2017. Project Dante arguably has the best form on show after his running on third in the G2 Norfolk Stakes last time out. This Bryan Smart runner was only beaten a head and a nose that day. He wasn’t the best away that day but was doing all his best work at the finish so the step up to 6f looks a good move. 

 

3.00 – Each-Way Extra At Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Had won no more than 3 times before
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
12/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/15 – Ridden by David Probert
0/15 – Winning favourites
Pass The Vino (25/1) won the race in 2019 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw

CASUMO VERDICT: A big field of 20 runners here, but with 12 of the last 15 winners carrying 8-12 or less this at least rules out the top six on the card – Jumby, Spycatcher, Cairn Gorm, Apollo One, Just Frank and Boomshalaa. Horses that ‘didn’t’ win last time out have also won 13 of the last 15, so this might be bad news for recent winners – Whenthedealisdone, Mitrosonfire, Baba Reza and Akkeringa. While 11 of the last 15 winners hailed from a double-figure draw. It’s not been a great race for the favourite either – none in the last 15 runnings, so keep an eye on the market in the build-up to the race. Winning form over this 6f trip is key too – with 13 of the last 15 winners ticking this trend. This would be a negative for Peerless and Equality. Of those mentioned, the lightly-raced BOOMSHALAA only misses out of the weight trend by a pound and despite a lowish draw (7) will have options to get over. The Roger Varian yard won this race in 2017 too and wasn’t disgraced last time at Ascot in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes over 5f. The step back up to 6f (twice a winner at this trip) will suit and with just four career runs will have more improvement to come. Of the rest, POPMASTER (e/w) only beaten 3 lengths in that same Ascot race Boomshalaa ran in and gets in with just 8-5 here with Oisin Murphy riding. Blackrod is another that’s respected from the shrewd Michael Dods camp, but ABDUCTION (e/w) is the other call. This Richard Fahey runner ran well off a break last month (2nd) at Pontefract and with that run also being his first after being gelded can be expected to have come on for it. The yard won this in 2013 too and a good middle draw in 11 will give jockey Paddy Mathers options. 

 

3.35 – Princess Of Wales´s Tattersalls Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

17/19 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 11 of last 14)
17/19 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
15/19 – Had 2 or more runs that season
15/19 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
13/19 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
13/19 – Unplaced in their previous race
10/19 – Favourites that were placed
9/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/19 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
Communique (11/1) won the race in 2019 and was second in 2020

CASUMO KEY TREND: Sir Michael Stoute has trained 9 winners of the race

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the five runners here but still a nice little renewal. The 120-rated AL AASY sets the standard though and with most of the other four runners having a bit to prove at present, this William Haggas runner gets the verdict. He was only just touched-off in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom last time and so this drop into a Group Two can hopefully do the trick. Add in he’s also a course winner here and acts well on any ground, so won’t be bothered if there is any further rain. Prior to his last race he landed two nice Group Three races at Newbury and is taken to get back to winning ways. Of the rest, Bangkok and Godolphin’s Star Safari are closely matched on the ratings, but the step up to 1m4f for Bangkok would be the worry for that one – he’s tried this trip twice and been beaten both times. Star Safari was last seen running 6th in the Dubai Sheema Classic, but has been freshened up with 3 ½ months off and with 4 turf wins from 8 knows how to win – Godolphin have also landed three of the last 7 runnings. He is rated 10lbs inferior to the selection though. The Johnston runner – Sir Ron Priestley – is a big danger though. Yes, he’s been below-par the last twice, but the softer ground at Ascot last time went against him and back to 1m4f here on hopefully a better surface will help. He stays further than this trip too, while the yard has a fine record in the race – winning 2 of the last 8. The only niggle is that it won’t be easy having to give 3lbs away to the others, but with more favourable conditions he’s taken to improve on his recent outings.  The final one to mention is HIGHEST GROUND. This one comes from the Sir Michael Stoute camp, who are another yard that have a terrific record in this contest. He probably wasn’t suited by the softer ground last time at Ascot, but was a nice winner the time before at Leicester and the form of that win has been franked since with the runner-up, Outbox, landing the Listed Fred Archer Stakes here last month. Ryan Moore riding is the added bonus.

 

All times BST

18+ | Play responsibly | Odds subject to change | Casumo Services Ltd is licensed by the MGA | MGA/CRP/217/2012 | rgf.org.mt