Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends and Tips

Run over 1m4f the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older and staged at Longchamp racecourse. 

In recent years, the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 19 winners being aged 3 years-old, while 13 of the last 19 – came here off the back of a last time out victory. Last year we saw the French-trained Sottsass land the race – improving on his third in the 2019 renewal.

The draw has also been crucial in modern times – with a massive 15 of the last 19 winners coming from stalls 8 or lower!

As always, here at CASUMO, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the 2021 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 3rd October.

 

Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

2020 – Sottsass (73/10)
2019 – Waldgeist (131/10)
2018 – Enable (Evs)
2017 – Enable (10/11 fav)
2016 – Found (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (9/2)
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

18/19 – Had won a Group 1 race before
17/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/19 – Had 4 or more runs that season
15/19 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
14/19 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/19 – Had won at least 5 times before

13/19 – Had run at Longchamp before
13/19 – Won last time out
12/19 – Had won at Longchamp previously
11/19 – Aged 3 years-old
10/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Won by a French-based yard
9/19 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
8/19 – Female winners
5/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Won by a UK-based yard
3/19 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 8 times in all)
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 12 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 15/2
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 3 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 27 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

CASUMO VERDICT: A fascinating renewal of this season’s Arc – a case can certainly be made for several! The first thing to note though regarding the trends is the draw. A massive 15 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 8 or lower, so this is a good place to start. This would be a plus for Mojo Star, Hurricane Lane, Tamawa, Love, Deep Bond, Bubble Gift, Broome and Alenquer. This could also be deemed a negative for the likely favourite and this year’s Epsom Derby winner – Adayar, who is drawn 11. This Godolphin 3 year-old will still be well-fancied by many though after romping away with the King George at Ascot since. The form of that race, with the classy Mishriff in second and winning since, is rock solid and barring the draw, it’s hard to fault his chance. William Buick, who is looking for his first win in this race, rides, while the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin will be looking for third win in the race, but their first since 2002.

The French challenge is a bit weak on the ground this year, with the Jean-Claude-trained Raabihah looking their main hope. She does hail from last year’s winning yard though and looks an improving middle-distance filly that won a decent G2 at Deauville last time out. But draw 15 would be the worry. In contrast, the Irish challenge is strong with the Dermot Weld-trained Tamawa a huge player. She will be well suited by the return to 1m4f after not quite getting there (2nd) in the Irish Champion Stakes over 1m2f last time at Leopardstown and draw 3 is a big plus.

Two-time winner of this race – Christophe Soumillion rides and is actually 2-from-2 on her – both wins also coming here at Longchamp! Aidan O’Brien will be hunting his third success in the race and with classy mares – Snowfall and Love – he’s got a good chance. Ryan Moore picks Snowfall, but the worry would be that she was beaten at 1/5 here over this course and distance last time and draw 9 is not ideal. LOVE (e/w), on the other hand, might be the value of the O’Brien runners. She will be ridden by a certain Frankie Dettori, who has won this race six times, and draw 4 is ideal. Yes, she’s got a bit to prove this season and probably wouldn’t want the ground to get much softer, but on her day she’s a classy filly and the return to this 1m4f will help too. O’Brien also runs Broome.

We’ve also a runner from Japan as their classy mare – Chrono Genesis – travels over. Ridden by Oisin Murphy, this 5 year-old is a 4-time Group One winner and was only a neck behind Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March – rock solid form. She’s certainly a player – this is, however, her first time here at Longchamp and draw 14 makes life harder. So, that leaves us with the other Godolphin runner – HURRICANE LANE. This 3 year-old has been very impressive in winning his last three – including the St Leger over further last time out at Doncaster. Before that he landed the Irish and French Derby, the last here over this course and distance.

The softer ground is fine, and we know he’s got proven stamina, should this turn into a slog. Yes, his regular jockey – William Buick – decides to Adayar instead, but it couldn’t have been an easy pick, so James Doyle comes in for the ride. This will actually be his first time on the horse, but would have ridden him plenty at home. Draw 2 is perfect too and being a proven CD winner here on very soft ground is a huge plus too. 

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