Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: Day Three – Thursday 17th June 2021

More top action this week as the horse racing bandwagon turns its attention to the 2021 Royal Ascot Meeting. The five-day meeting (Tues 15th-Sat 19th June) is always one of the highlights on the flat racing calendar and we’ve got it all covered! 

The action continues on Thursday 17th June with Ladies’ Day. Thursday at Royal Ascot is always about one race – the Ascot Gold Cup – and all eyes will be on the popular stayer, Stradivarius, who has won the last three runnings and will be looking to equal the four wins that Yeats achieved in the contest between 2006 and 2009.

Did you know? 15 of the last 19 Ascot Gold Cup favourites finished in the top three?

Like all big race days, here at CASUMO we’re in your corner with key trends and stats, plus our free tips – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

Let’s get cracking! 

 

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f ITV4

Norfolk Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had at least 1 previous run
17/18 – Previous winners over 5f
16/18 – Had a RPR of 106+
16/18 – Had never raced at Ascot before
15/18 – Won their previous race
14/18 – Foaled in March or April
11/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Favourites placed
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price
3/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ran at Windsor last time out
2/18 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 6 winners
10 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: Another 2 year-old race to get us going on day three and all eyes will be on the US Wesley Ward pair – Lucci and Nakatomi – the yard have won this race twice since 2013. Both had here having won their debut runs and both look typical Ward speedsters that can be expected to blast out from the gates and try and hang on. The betting suggests both have big chances, with Lucci the slightly shorter of the two in the market – both are respected and the betting through the morning should be noted when it comes to this duo. However, another yard that’s done well in this contest is the Aidan O’Brien camp – they’ve won the race in 2015 and 2017. This year they pin their hopes on CADAMOSTO, who won well on debut at Dundalk back in April. That came over 5f and having shown plenty of pace that day and having another 2 months on his back to strengthen up gets the call. Others to note are Andreas Vesalius and Second Wind, but with the Clive Cox yard having a 19% record with their 2 year-olds at the track their INSTINCTIVE MOVE (e/w), who won easily at Bath on debut, plus the David Loughnane runner – GO BEARS GO, is a proven CD winner that also hails from a yard that do well here with their juveniles at the track (22%). 

KEY CASUMO TREND: 10 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inclusive)

 

3.05 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Hampton Court Stakes Key Trends

17/18 – Had not raced at Ascot before
15/18 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
15/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/18 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
10/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/18 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
13 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
10 of the last 15 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: With no winner from stall 1 in the last 15 years, then this might be seen as a negative for Godolphin’s One Ruler, who was last seen running sixth in the Derby. He’s also got to give 4lbs away to the rest of the field and that might prove hard, especially against the 111-rated MOHAAFETH. This William Haggas runner has improved no end this season with three wins on the bounce at Lingfield and Newmarket (twice) and could not have been more impressive when winning a Listed race last time at HQ by 5 lengths. He clearly likes the quicker ground so any rain might be a slight concern, but has run well on good-to-soft in the past too – he looks the clear one to beat. Of the rest, it’s another race the Aidan O’Brien yard like to win, so their Matchless and Roman Empire are respected. Of the rest, Secret Protector has 5 lengths to find with the selection based on their last running, so the other of interest is the lesser exposed MOVIN TIME. This Roger Varian 3 year-old won well at HQ last time – yes, only a maiden, but the fact he’s got some fancy Group 1 entries suggests connections feel he’s above average and should certainly have more to come.  

KEY CASUMO TREND: 13 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 5 or higher

 

3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f ITV4

Ribblesdale Stakes Key Trends

15/18 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
15/18 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/18 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
14/18 – Placed in their previous race
13/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Irish-trained winners (5 of last 9)
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 7)
3/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: Another race the Aidan O’Brien yard do well in – winning 3 of the last 7 – so their Divinely, who was last seen running a distance third in the Epsom Oaks. Any rain would help her cause, but having been beaten 18 lengths that day still suggests she’s got a bit to find. Dubai Fountain is the top-rated in the field, but he’s another with a bit to prove after running 12th in the Oaks last time – the Ascot track should suit her better though and can’t be discounted on her Listed win in the Cheshire Oaks back in May. Eshaada and Gloria Mundi are closely-matched having finished first and second last time at Newbury, but the horse that came fourth in that same race – TWISTED REALITY (e/w) – might have the more scope for improvement. This Ralph Beckett runner stayed on well to be fourth that day and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths at the line. The extra 2 furlongs here will help too as she was doing all her best work at the finish – of the bigger priced runners she looks interesting. Then it’s also hard to ignore the Stoute-trained NOON STAR, who ran the easy Oaks winner – Snowfall – to 3 ¾ lengths in the Musidora Stakes at York last time and that is arguably the best form on offer here. She’s only had four career runs and the extra 1 1/2 furlongs here should eke out a bit more improvement. 

KEY CASUMO TREND: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 3 of the last 7 runnings

 

4.20 – Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends

17/19 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
16/19 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
16/19 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
15/19 – Favourites that were placed
14/19 – Won their last race
13/19 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/19 – Aged 5 or older
11/19 – Won by the favourite
7/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
13 of the last 15 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 15 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
John Gosden has trained the winner in 2018, 2019 and 2020
Since 1949 there have been 15 multiple winners of the race

CASUMO VERDICT: Ascot Gold Cup time and that means ‘Strady Time’ once again. Yes, it’s hard to get away from the three-time winner of this race – STRADIVARIUS – who will be hoping to grab his fourth win on the bounce in this top-class staying Group One race. He lost his way a bit towards the backend of last season with three defeats so he’s not as ‘bomb proof’ as he used to be. However, after a winter off he bounced back to winning ways at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes at the end of April and let’s not forget he’s still only a 7 year-old. This is his race and he’s likely to get his conditions again, so is taken to move one step nearer to equalling Yeats haul of 5 wins in this race not too long ago. He’ll face some strong challenges this year though, with Subjectivist an up-and-coming 4 year-old from the Mark Johnston yard, while Trueshan landed the Long Distance Cup here on Champions Day last October and can go well too under Hollie Doyle. Spanish Moon was a nice winner of the Yorkshire Cup last month too and having won over 2m2f in the past then extra trip could easily be within range. We’ve also got last year’s Epsom Derby winner – Serpentine – in the race, but he’s not really backed up that win from last season and the trip would be an unknown. However, the other Aidan O’Brien runner – SANTIAGO (e/w) – has been running as if this distance is worth a crack and has won at this meeting in the past, when taking the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f last term. He’s got a bit to find with Spanish Moon on their running last time (2 3/4 lengths), but, as mentioned, the longer trip looks a good move and was only 2 ¼ lengths behind Strady in the Goodwood Cup last season over 2m. 

KEY CASUMO TREND: Stradivarus 

 

5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m ITV4

Britannia Stakes Key Trends

16/18 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
15/18 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
14/18 – Placed last time out
13/18 – Failed to win their previous race
13/18 – Carried 8-13 or less
13/18 – Had never run at Ascot before
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/18 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/18 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall

CASUMO VERDICT: As always, a super-competitive renewal of this 1m handicap. Horses from stall 1 has struggled to even make the frame in recent years, so that’s a negative for the in-form Aerion Power, who has won his last three. But 11 of the last 15 winners hailed from a double-figure draw too, so that might also be a bad sign for those draw low – Aerion Power, Horoscope, Royal Pleasure, Counsel, Laelaps, Star Of Orion, Qaader, Air To Air and Emporio. That said, it’s been a kind race to jockey Jamie Spencer with 2 wins in the last 5 runnings, so punters may latch onto his mount here – Air To Air, who gets in here with a light weight (8-7) and could still be ahead of the handicapper despite two recent wins. 13 of the last 18 winners – however, did fail to win their last race and the same amount also carried 8-13 or less in weight. With these trends in mind, the first of interest is the Roger Varian runner – DINOO (e/w) – with the yard having won this race 12 months ago too. This 3 year-old was a beaten favourite at Wolverhampton last time out, but was slowly away that day and was running on well at the finish – the step up to a mile will help, as will this stiffer track. He’s only had three career runs, so is learning all the time and with draw 22 and a nice weight of 8-11, he’s taken to improve from that last showing. Prior to that last run he was thought good enough to run in a Group Three, in which he finished a fair fifth. Others to respect are George Peabody, Raadobarg, Emperor Spirit, Liffey River and Perotto, but the two other main picks are DUBAI HONOUR (e/w) and MITHRAS (e/w). The former hasn’t been seen since last October, but it’s interesting the Haggas kept haven’t got a run into him for this – maybe they are keeping an eye on his handicap mark, but Tom Marquand has also been booked to ride so that’s a good sign too. He’s been gelded since his last run too and draw 10 will give him options to go either side. Then Mithras, who is ridden by Frankie Dettori, is better than his last run at Sandown having not been suited by the softer ground. Yes, any significant rain before this race would be a worry, but prior to that last outing had showed a good level of form in winning twice. Draw 15 looks ideal too. 

 

5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

 

King George V Stakes Key Trends

17/18 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
17/18 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
17/18 – Never raced at Ascot before
17/18 – Placed last time out
15/18 – Carried 8-13 or less
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
12/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
9/18 – Favourites placed
9/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (4)
4/18 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/18 – Godolphin-owned
10 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: Another very competitive race to try and unravel. Hat-trick seekers Nagano for Roger Varian and the Aidan O’Brien runner Sir Lamorak are certainly two for the shortlist, while O’Brien also has Sir William Bruce in the race and being one of only a handful of proven distance winners has to enter the picture too. Others that come here in great form are Godolphin’s Siskany and the Ralph Beckett runner – Lord Protector – both are on four-timers. This is also a race the Sir Michael Stoute yard have done well in – winning it twice in the last 18 years. But another stable that like to target this race is the Mark Johnston team – winning 4 of the last 18. They have several entered – Love Is Golden (reserve), Glen Again (reserve), Annandale (reserve), SOAPY STEVENS (e/w) and KONDO ISLAND (e/w), with the last two-named looking interesting. The former has won his last two but is also proven over this 1m4f and further having won over 1m6f too. He’s up 6lbs for the last of those wins, but still gets in here with a light racing weight of just 8-8 and that’s 13lbs less than he carried last time. Then Knodo Island is another that’s proven over the trip so staying won’t be an issue. He’s only 2lbs higher than when running a close second at Doncaster a few weeks ago, but the drop back to 1m4 will be in his favour too and Ben Curtis catches the eye in the saddle. SUREFIRE and FIRST LIGHT are the other two in the race to respect and with 19 runners there is no harm in having 3 or 4 on side. Surefire was an easy winner at Leicester last time over 1m2f and should do better upped in trip. Hector Crouch was on the last day too and remains in the saddle – with just 8-9 in weight he looks on a fair mark too. Then First Light is another Frankie-ridden runner that bolted up at Ripon by 12 lengths last time out. Yes, that was only a maiden but prior to that run ran the useful John Leeper to 6 ½ lengths at Newcastle so his form this season looks progressive. 

 

6.10 – Buckingham Palace Handicap (3yo+) 7f ITV4

6/6 – Returned 12/1 or bigger in the betting
6/6 – Had run at Ascot before
6/6 – Had won over at least 6f before
6/6 – Unplaced favourites
5/6 – Had 5+ wins before
5/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Rated between 93-98
5/6 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/6 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
4/6 – Bred in Ireland
4/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/6 – Came from stall 29
2/6 – Ran at Ascot last time out
0/6 – Winning favourites
Motakhayyel (14/1) won the race in 2020

 

CASUMO VERDICT: We end with a 29-runner handicap so not an easy contest to solve. With 5 of the last 6 runners rated between 93 and 98 this might be a good place to start – Lord Rapscallion, Riot, Milltown Star, Corvair, Magical Wish, Total Commitment, Teston, Karibana, Whatham, Dance Fever, Boardman, Shelir, Persuasion, Jack’s Point, Blue Mist and Ropey Guest tick that trends from the 29 runners. Drawn in double-figures is another emerging trend to look for, with 5 of the last 6 winners ticking this stat. Of the 16 runners mentioned that are rated between 93 and 98, Lord Rapscallion, Riot, Milltown Star, Corvair, Magical Wish, Total Commitment, Teston, Karibana, Whatham, Dance Fever, Shelir and Persuasion have this as a plus. Course and distance winners – Raising Sands, Documenting, Blue Mist and Aldaary have run well here in the past and are others to keep onside. But the three we’ll be playing here are PERSUASION (e/w), DANCE FEVER (e/w) and RIOT (e/w). The first-named returned to the track with a win at Haydock at the end of April and is only up 3lbs for that. James Doyle has won on the horse in the past too and drawn high in 28 looks a plus. Dance Fever, for Clive Cox and jockey Adam Kirby, will have options from draw 14 and has run well here at the track before too. He’s only had five career runs, but won three of those too and even though he returns from almost a year off has run well fresh and also been gelded over the winter. Riot (drawn 24) is the final pick for the Gosden camp. He’s been running well this season without winning, but gets into this better race with only 8-12 in weight to carry and Oisin Murphy is a further bonus in the saddle. 

 

All times BST

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