Horse Racing Preview

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends – 3rd July 2021

Saturday TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends

This Saturday the ITV horse racing cameras head to Sandown and Haydock to take in seven races across the two venues. 

Up at Haydock, the Group Two Lancashire Oaks is the feature, along with the competitive Old Newton Cup – a race that’s seen 13 of the last 19 winners carry 9st 1lbs or less and drawn in stall 13 or lower. 

Then, down at Sandown we’ve four more races live on ITV that are spearheaded by the Group One Eclipse Stakes and with ALL of the last 19 winners aged 5 or younger the William Haggas-trained Addeybb has this key trend to try and overcome. 

Anyway………Let’s get cracking!


Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y ITV

19/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Favourites placed
14/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
14/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Had won at Sandown before
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
9 of the last 15 winners were Irish bred
12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

CASUMO KEY TREND: 14 of the last 19 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old 

CASUMO VERDICT: With 12 of the last 15 winners coming between stalls 1 and 4, this is good news for KEEP BUSY, COUNT D’ORSAY, STONE OF DESTINY and ATALIS BAY. Of that bunch, the Marco Botti-trained ATALIS BAY (e/w) has done little wrong in recent runs and looks a fast-improving sprinter. He won well from the front in a Listed race here last month and from draw 4 should be fine to get away quickly again and keep out of trouble up top. He’ll need to find a bit more in this better race but is clearly a sprinter in fine fettle and we know he acts well at the track too. Came From The Dark and the Godolphin runner – Lazuli – are closely-matched having been separated by just a neck at Newmarket last time out, while Lazuli is also a proven CD winner at the track. However, the clear form pick here is the Robert Cowell runner – ARECIBO – who we last saw running a blinder in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was a G1 race so this drop into a G3 will help and this 6 year-old is also the top-rated in the field. He will need some luck in-running as is often held up in his races but will have the perfect partner on that score in Jamie Spencer.


2.25 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV

18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Carried 8-8 or more
17/19 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
17/19 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
15/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
11/19 – Had run at Sandown before
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/19 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (6) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas (won the last 2 runnings)
12 of the last 15 winners came from stall 8 or lower
Montatham (6/5 fav) won the race in 2020


CASUMO KEY TREND: 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up here with Magical Morning, who was last seen running a fair eighth in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. That run came off a 277-day break too, so can be expected to have improved for it and should not be far away. With 17 of the last 19 winners carrying 8st 8lbs or more in weight, this looks a negative for the bottom four on the card – Fantasy Believer, Plantadream, Pythagoras and Ransom. Horses aged 6 or younger have also taken 18 of the last 19, so the older runners in the field – Trais Fluors, Escobar and Accidental Agent have this age trend to try and defy. The two that I like here though are the William Haggas-trained MONTATHAM, who actually won this race in 2020 and the Hugo Palmer runner – ACQUITED. The first-named took this prize 12 months ago so we know the track suits and despite being rated 9lbs higher this time a lot of that is offset with jockey Adam Farragher’s 5lb claim. This 5 year-old returned to the track in March with a fair third in a Listed race at Doncaster and even though he’s been off for three months since is a horse that seems to thrive fresh. Then Acquited is one of just a handful of 4 year-olds in the race and with that age group having won 11 of the last 19 renewals that’s the first plus. He wasn’t beaten far (2nd) at Chelmsford last month over 7f but didn’t get the best of runs that day and should be better suited by this step up to a mile having run on well that day. The only niggle is that he ran a poor 9th (of 9) in this race last year, but he’s since been gelded and was only a 3 year-old at the time so will be a much wiser and stronger horse this time.



3.00 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y ITV

16/17 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
16/17 – Had never run at Sandown before
14/17 – Had won over 7f or further before
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
The last 14 winners came from stalls 3-9 (inc)
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6

CASUMO KEY TREND: The last 14 winners came between stalls 3-9 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: Trainer William Haggas has won the last two runnings of this race so this pair AUNTY BRIDY and READY TO VENTURE are worth noting in the betting. Both have a bit to prove based on last runs but form prior to those runs would give them chances. Seattle Rock is the only last time out winner in the field but did flash her tail in the closing stages that day so does have a few quirks. I feel the Andrew Balding runner Auria will have more to offer after only four career runs and may do better dropped back to a mile. Shine For You and the Gosden pair of Senita and Kestenna are others to consider, but the Ryan Moore-ridden STATEMENT is the top-rated in the field and is expected to be hard to beat. She was last seen running well in the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom last month (3rd), and that came having also lost a shoe during the race! This represents a slight drop in grade (Listed) and prior to that last run was a solid 8th, only beaten 6 lengths, in the G1 1000 Guineas – a repeat of that run would make her hard to beat.  




3.35 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

19/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
15/19 – Won by a previous Group One winner
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Placed in their last race
13/19 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
11/19 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/19 – Favourites that won
5/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/19 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 9)
6 of the last 14 winners won last time out
2 of the last 12 Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 9/2


Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995, 2016 & 2020
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
13 of out the last 16 winners had run in the previous 30 days
12 out of the last 16 winners were Group 1 winners
15 of the last 16 winners came from the first four in the betting
14 out of the last 16 winners had won over 1m 2f or further

CASUMO KEY TREND: ALL of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: A real shame that for this lucrative G1 contest we’ve only four runners and really with the Roger Varian-trained El Drama rated 13lbs+ inferior to the other trio. That leaves us with three runners to focus on – St Mark’s Basilica, Mishriff and Addeybb. A case can certainly be made for them all. Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings and will be trying to follow-up with his globe-trotting Mishriff. This 4 year-old has won over £10m in prise money to date and was last seen taking the G1 Sheema Classic at Meydan. He’s a top-class middle-distance performer and with the stiff finish here at Sandown will be fine dropping back to 1m2f here. The concern though is having to give 10lbs away to this season’s French Guineas and Derby winner – ST MARK’S BASILICA. This Aidan O’Brien runner has clearly improved this term for stepping up in trip and there could be more to come having only had seven career outings. He’s now won his last three races – all Group Ones – and looks another top-class performer to come off the Ballydoyle conveyor belt. Ryan Moore rides and being a 3 year-old gets a handy 10lbs from both Mishriff and Addeybb. Of course, the William Haggas-trained Addeybb is certainly not discounted either. He’s the only course winner in the field and has won two of his last three G1 races. He stays this trip will and is the top-rated in the field (125) too. But, as mentioned, he’s also got to give 10lbs away to the 120-rated St Mark’s Basilica, while this race has also been won by a horse aged 5 or younger in ALL of the last 19 renewals – a trend this 7 year-old will, therefore, have to overcome. 


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Cl3 1m2f95y ITV

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Drawn between stalls 4-9 (inc)
4/4 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
2/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Ed de Giles is 2-from-4 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 28% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan has a 28% record riding 3 year-olds at the track 
William Haggas trained the winner in 2020
Mark Johnston trained the winner in 2018 and 2019
John Gosden trained the winner in 2017 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won 2 of the last 3 renewals


CASUMO VERDICT: Just the four past runnings if this race but with trainers William Haggas and Mark Johnston having won three of those renewals between them, their pair DHUSHAN and HARLEM SOUL look interesting. The former is trained by Haggas, who also has a solid 28% record at the track with his 3 year-olds, and ran out a comfortable 1 ¾ length winner at Musselburgh last month. He’s up 7lbs for that win and into a slightly better race, but with just four career runs is one of the few runners in the race that should have more scope for improvement. Then the Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019 and 2018, so their Harlem Soul catches the eye too. He won well last time at Ripon, albeit in only a Class 5 contest – however, is up only 4lbs for that and is another that looks to be getting the hang of things after just four previous outings – Silvestre De Sousa is a further plus in the saddle. Of the rest, course winners Tashkhan and Sir Rumi can’t be ruled out. Summer’s Knight could be interesting off a low weight for the shred Sir Mark Prescott yard, while trainer Ed de Giles has a fair strike-rate at the track with his 3 year-olds and runs Alpine Stroll. However, it’s also worth noting that Mark Johnston also have to others in the race – Soapy Stevens, who is a CD winner, and Kondo Island. With the yard’s decent record in this race these can’t be discounted either.


2.40 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y ITV

16/19 – Had won at least at Listed class before
16/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/19 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/19 – Trained by John Gosden
6/19 – Had raced at Haydock before
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The last 8 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old
Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket

CASUMO KEY TREND: The last 8 runnings have been won by a 4 year-old 

CASUMO VERDICT: Alpinista will be a popular choice here, being the top-rated filly in the field. This Sir Mark Prescott runner returned at the end of April with a game win at Goodwood – beaten another of today’s runners – Makawee. But there was only a short head between the pair that day and each time this 4 year-old has dipped her toe into Group class, she’s been touched off – that would be a worry for me. On a plus, the last 8 runnings were all won by a 4 year-old so she has that in her favour. However, she also has to give away a massive 12lbs to the Mark Johnston 3 year-old – DUBAI FOUNTAIN – and that could be the difference. She wasn’t disgraced against her own sex in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last time – beaten just 3 ¾ lengths. That was against her own age group and even though it won’t be easy now racing against older fillies, she at least gets a handy weight allowance. Mystery Angel and Tribal Craft certainly have claims too, but the other two 4 year-olds in the race are BHARANI STAR (e/w) and CABALETTA (e/w). The former is a proven CD winner here too and won well last time out at Ayr in a Listed contest, while the Roger Varian-trained Cabaletta has 1 ¾ to find with La Lune, who beat her last time in the G3 Pinnacle Stakes, but the better ground will help this time and this consistent sort is taken to go well too.   


3.15 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y ITV

Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends

17/19 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
14/19 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
14/19 – Won no more than 5 times before
13/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
13/19 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
13/19 – Had won at least 3 times before
12/19 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Irish or USA bred
10/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/19 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/19 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
7/19 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/19 – Had won a race at Haydock before
5/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/19 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/19 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11.5/1


CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Mark Johnston has won the race three times since 2013

CASUMO VERDICT: 19 runners here so the trends can hopefully help. With 15 of the last 19 winners aged 5 or younger this would be a potential negative for the older runners in the race – Soto Sizzler, Alounak, Pirate King, Scarlet Dragon and Graphite. Winning form over this 1m4f trip is another thing to look for – most fit the bill, but a handful don’t – Lost Eden, Graphite, Morisco, Dark Jedi and Alounak. With 13 of the last 19 winners carrying 9-1 or less and also coming from stalls 13 or lower, these combined are a plus for GRAND BAZAAR, THE TRADER, VALYRAIN STEEL and DARK JEDI. But the last-named has already been ruled out regarding the trip, so that leaves us with GRAND BAZAAR, THE TRADER and VALRAIN STEEL. The former hails from the powerful John Gosden yard that he should be spot-on for this after a decent return run third at HQ in May. He did well around this time last season too and looks to have had this race as a target being lightly-raced this season. The Trader comes from the Mark Johnston yard, that also have Zabeel Champion. This 5 year-old was probably not suited to the tricky Epsom track last time, but if you can forgive that outing had been running well before that. Draw one is useful and Franny Norton takes over in the saddle in a race the yard has won three times since 2013. Then, finally, Valyrain Steel, has done little wrong in winning his last two races at Kempton and is interesting now back on the grass. He’s lightly-raced (6 runs) and despite being up 6lbs from his last win, gets into this better race with just 8st 13lbs in weight. Of those drawn higher, My Frankel, Midnights Legacy and Longsider are sure to have their supporters, while the already mentioned other Johnston runner – Zabeel Champion – looks sure to run a big race now back on better ground. 


All times BST

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