Horse Racing Preview

Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends- 10th July 2021

It’s a jam-packed Saturday for the ITV horse racing cameras with a massive 11 races dotted around three tracks. We’ve the final day of the Newmarket July Festival – but to break things up, these races are covered on a separate blog to continue the coverage from HQ during the week. 

We’ve also got three LIVE ITV races from York that are spearheaded by the John Smith’s Cup Handicap – a race that 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or younger. 

Then, at Ascot we’ve two more LIVE races that include the Group Two Summer Mile – a prize the Andrew Balding and William Haggas yards have won twice each in the last five years. 

As always, we’ve got all the races covered with key trends and stats – use these to find the best past profile of winning horses. 

Let’s get cracking!


Ascot Horse Racing Free Tips and Trends



3.00 – Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV 

13/13 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
8/13 – Previous Group race winner
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Had won a Group 1 before
10 of the last 11 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

CASUMO KEY TREND: 11 of the last 13 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

CASUMO VERDICT: With all of the last 13 winners aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old, this would be a negative for the 7 year-old Century Dream, who is one of the leading players here. Sir Busker will be popular after his excellent third in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes last time out – beaten just 2 ½ lengths behind the useful Palace Pier. However, the fact he’s now nine races without a win would be a concern that he’s become a horse that is placed more often than winning. Top Rank was second behind Century Dream at Windsor last time out – took a keen hold that day so will need to settle better here to get home. Regal Reality is the top-rated in the field so can’t be ruled out but was disappointing in the Queen Anne Stakes last time out so neds to bounce back. The two I’m going to side with though are TILSIT and HAPPY POWER (e/w). The former was only just touched off in a Group One in France the last day so the drop back in trip will suit. With six career runs he’s still lightly-raced and will head here fresher than most after just one run this season. Then Happy Power comes from the Andrew Balding yard that have won two of the last three runnings. This 5 year-old was a fair fourth in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last time and having looked a bit outpaced that day so the step back up to a mile will help and we know the track is fine.   


3.35 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV 

Just 7 previous running 
7/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had won between 2-6 times
6/7 – Had won over 5f before
6/7 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
6/7 – Carried 8-10 or more
6/7 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
4/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Came from a double-figure stall
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 6 of the last 7 winners didn’t win last time out

CASUMO VERDICT: 20 runners head to post here so a race with many chances. All of the last 7 winners raced in the last three weeks, so there are some that fall outside this – Boundless Power, Tis Marvellous, Makanah, Showalong, Get It, Mulzim and Nelson Gay. 6 of the last 7 winners were aged between 4 and 6 too – this is good news for 10 of the 20 runners, while won’t worry if your fancy didn’t win last time out – 6 of the last 7 ticked that box. We’ve several CD winners in the race too – Significantly, Only Spoofing, Tis Marvellous, Danzeno and Blue De Vega. The first one I like is the Antony Brittain runner – MONDAMMEJ (e/w). This 4 year-old has been running consistently all year but the stiff 5f here at Ascot looks sure to suit as he stays a bit further, plus heads here off the back of a solid run at Newcastle last time. Draw 15 is fine too and will be hoping the ground remains on the good to quick side. Recent winners – Significantly, Boundless Power and Hurricane Ivor enter calculations too, as does Nomadic Empire. But at a nice price the Tim Easterby runner – SUNDAY SOVEREIGN (e/w) – might be worth a small interest too. He ran flat last time, but that was his first try on the AW (Newcastle) and probably didn’t like it. Prior to that he was an excellent second at York and a repeat of that run would make him interesting, while any rain would help his cause. 




York Horse Racing Free Tips and Trends


1.45 – John Smith’s Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV 


9/9 – Aged between 3-6 years-old
9/9 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
8/9 – Won over at least 1m before
8/9 – Won between 2-4 times before
7/9 – Carried 9st 1lb or more in weight
7/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/9 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Had run at the track before
3/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 – Winning favourites

Note: No race in 2020 


CASUMO KEY TREND: 7 of the last 9 winners were aged 4 or 5, placed 4th or better last time out and carried 9st 1lb or more

CASUMO VERDICT: A very open race to get the live ITV racing going at York. ALL of the last nine winners were aged between 3-6 years-old though, but only the 8 year-old Gallipoli gets a negative here. 7 of the last 9 winners carried 9st 1lb or more, which would be a plus for the top 9 on the card. Of those nine the 6 year-old CROWNTHORPE (e/w) looks interesting having battled on well to be a close second at Newcastle last time out. He’s back on the grass here off the same mark and if you include Connor Murtagh’s 3lb claim doesn’t look too badly treated, with his last win coming off a 3lb higher rating. With 4 and 5 year-olds having a good record too and those drawn 7 or lower also going well – then we’ll also be having two onside that tick those stats – AJYAAL (e/w) and JUMP THE GUN (e/w). The last-named was an easy 3 ½ length winner at Hamilton last time out and even though up 8lbs for that success looked to have a fair bit in-hand. Trip and ground look ideal too. Ajyaal is the other pick that should improve for his recent fourth at York after a 215-day break. The step up to 1m will suit and that run would have also taken away some of the freshness which he ran with last time out. Of the rest, in a race with many chances the likes of Young Fire, Eagleway, Chichester, Poet’s Dawn, Amaysmont and Wobwobwob others that can run well.  


2.20 – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4 


15/15 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
14/15 – Won from stall 10 or lower
13/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Had run at York before
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
3/15 – Winning favourites


CASUMO KEY TREND: 13 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger

CASUMO VERDICT: If the ground remained on the softer side that wouldn’t be ideal for recent York scorer, who does prefer it quicker. That said, should the ground dry out between now and Saturday his chance will certainly improve and is a proven CD winner too. Hukam will be all the rage after his decent third at Ascot last time in the Hardwicke Stakes, but I’m not so sure the step up to 1m6f here will suit. He got collared late on over that 1m4f trip last time and his only previous try over 1m6f was a defeat in the St Leger. Quickthorn has won his last two well, but this is a step up in grade from handicap company and also tackles a longer trip for the first time. A chance is taken on FUJAIRA PRINCE returning from a lay-off to run well. This consistent Roger Varian runner is yet to finish out of the first three from his 10 races and despite not running since last October is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. He’s a CD winner here too and is the top-rated in the field as well. Ilaraab is another to note but has to bounce back from a poor run in the Hardwicke Stakes and the trip is a slight unknown. So, a chance is also taken on the Irish raider – SONNYBOYLISTON (e/w). This Johnny Murtagh runner was a good Listed winner at Limerick last time out and prior to that ran the useful Japan to 4 ¼ lengths at Chester in the Ormonde Stakes. His running style suggests the longer trip will suit and should be fine no matter what the ground throws up. 


4.05 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4 


18/19 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
14/19 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/19 – Came from stall 9 or higher
13/19 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/19 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Officially rated between 99-105
9/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/19 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/19 – Trained by William Haggas
2/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
9 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11.5/1


CASUMO KEY TREND: 12 of the last 19 winners carried 9st 3lbs or less


CASUMO VERDICT: 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or younger, so the older runners in the race – Johnny Drama, Nicholas T, Cockalorum, Data Protection, Victory Chime and What’s The Story – have this to overcome – in fact, there’s been only one winner older than 6 since 1960! 12 of the last 19 winners carried 9-3 or less, so the top three on the card – Palavecino, Al Zaragaan and What’s The Story – fall down here. CD winner – Surrey Pride – is up 6lbs for a recent win here and with that also coming off a 188-day break can be expected to improve again. He gets in with the same racing weight too and should go well. The drop back to 1m2f will help Aaddeey, who hasn’t quite been getting home over 1m4f in recent runs. But the Stoute runner – ASTRO KING – is the most interesting of those at the head of the betting. He was a decent second in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot last time and gets in here off the same mark. He won his race that day on his side of the group and the step up in can eke out a bit more improvement. Of the rest, I think the Owen Burrows runner – DAWAAM (e/w) – can run well too. This 5 year-old wasn’t disgraced in a better race at Ascot last time (Listed Wolferton Stakes) so will find this drop in grade easier. Draw 19 and being aged 5 tick those trends and top jockey Jim Crowley rides him over the other Shadwell Estate runner – Al Zaragaan.  




4.40 – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV4 

10/10 – Won over 5f before
9/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Had only won at Handicap class before
7/10 – Won at York before
6/10 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/10 – Won by a neck or less
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
Moss Gill won the race in 2020


CASUMO KEY TREND: Moss Gill won this race 12 months ago



CASUMO VERDICT: MOSS GILL won this race 12 months ago and should make a bold bid to follow-up. We know the track suits and heads here off the back of a close second in the Listed Achilles Stakes at Haydock. Que Amoro is another CD winner, along with El Astronaute, Bedford Flyer and Lahore, while the consistent Dakota Gold returns to the track after 245-days off and is another that’s a past course winner.  But the last two years he’s returned from a break he’s often needed a run or two before getting back to top form. So, that leaves us with the 114-rated WINTER POWER, who gets in here with the 3 year-old allowance too, which is a handy 7lbs from the older horses. She’s also the top-rated in the field (114) anyway and won’t have any track issues being a past CD winner too. She was last seen running 9th in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes – only beaten 5 ½ lengths – so this drop in grade will help and she should take all the beating here. 


All times BST

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