CHEPSTOW Horse Racing Tips

Another Casumo-sponsored afternoon this Thursday as the SKY cameras head to CHEPSTOW for a 7-race flat card.  

We run through each race with key stats and our best bets.  

Let’s get cracking! 

CHEPSTOW Horse Racing Tips

1:00 – Casumo Bet 10 Get 10 Novice Stakes Cl5 (3yo+) 1m SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Roger Varian has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

CASUMO VERDICT: With a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track, the Roger Varian-trained ALHEZABR gets the call here. This gelding actually finished first last time out Ffos Las but was demoted to second having caused interference in the race. That was his first run back for four months, so can be expected to be better for it and with a bit more luck can gain compensation here. The market will be the best guide for the newcomers in the race – Phlegon and Cavallo Grigio – while with five runs each and no wins yet, both Ghazaaly and Karuoka are looking a tad exposed. So, of the rest, the Stan Moore-trained WONDER ELMOSSMAN looks the most likely to give the main pick most to think about. This 3 year-old colt ran a blinder on debut to be a neck runner-up at Salisbury and so with that experience under his belt should go well here too.  

1:30 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Nursery Handicap (IRE Incentive Race) Cl6 (2yo 0-60) 1m SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainers Rod Millman and Mick Channon have won the last two runnings of this race

CASUMO VERDICT: Not the best 2 year-old race, so if you are having a play it might pay to just stick with the two yards that have won this prize recently. The Rod Millman team won the race in 2020, so their TWISTALINE is the first selection. With seven races to date (no wins) she’s a bit exposed, but in contrast also has the experience edge. She was a close second at Brighton last time out too, so heads here in better form than most and also has only 8-11 in weight to carry. The Mick Channon yard are the other to have won this recently (2019) – they run GREATNESS AWAITS. This juvenile took a step forward last time at Newbury to run a fair 5th of 10, but is down 2lbs for that and is now also dropped in grade. Of the rest, My Ambition and Olimba are the joint top-weights in the race so have shown a fair level of form. Stan Moore runs two – Vaxholm and Birkie Girl – so are others to note in the betting, while Melos, from the Tom Dascombe camp, is another that seems to be going in the right direction. 

2:00 – Download The Casumo App Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 6f SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Eve Johnson-Houghton won this race in 2020

CASUMO VERDICT: A chance is taken on the Eve Johnson Houghton-trained MY STYLE (e/w) here to bounce back to form. This 5 year-old flopped at Lingfield last time out but was reported to have not been suited by the track that day. Before that had been running ell at HQ and Bath, but also returns here on a pound lower mark. Georgia Dobie rides to claim a handy 3lbs too and it’s interesting the yard have a cracking 29% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and they also won this race 12 months ago. Russco has been in prolific winning form of late – winning his last four – however, in the process has shot up 20lbs from the first of those wins. He’s 6lbs higher than his last win here too and is also up in grade – you just feel his winning run must end soon! HANDYTALK is the other pick, after returning to form to win here over 5f last time. The step up to 6f is fine – has won over this trip and is only 3lbs higher than last time. Gilt Edge and Sir Maxi are others that have claims. 

2:35 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-60) 6f SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Tawaafoq won this race 12 months ago

CASUMO VERDICT: The Adrian Wintle yard have won this race 12 months ago with TAWAAFOQ and he’s worth taking a chance on again here. This 7 year-old is rated 8lbs higher this time, but connections are offsetting some of that with Tyler Heard’s 5lb claim. Trip and ground are also fine and having run in a better race last time will also enjoy the drop back into a Class 6 contest. Bezzas Lad and Major Valentine also CD winners that have to be respected, but the form horse heading into the race has to be the Mike Murphy runner BREEZYANDBRIGHT. This 3 year-old has finished in the top four in all his last eight races and another bold showing looks on the cards.  

3:05 – Casumo Proud To Support British Racing EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl5 (2yo) 7f SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Creek Harbour won this race 12 months ago

CASUMO VERDICT: Some Nightmare and Manumission are proven course and distance winners here to have on your shortlist, while Glamorous Crescent is a winner over 7f at the track. Andre Amar will be popular too with a couple of nice recent seconds to his name at Bath, but this could be another good race for the Adrian Wintle yard with their CREEK HARBOUR, who won the second division on this race 12 months ago. He’s rated 7lbs higher this time, but has progressed well since and has been running consistently well over the summer – including a close second at Lingfield last time out. Jockey Tyler Heard gets the leg-up to claim a handy 5lb too. The other pick goes to SIR RODERIC, who is starting to look well-handicapped off a mark off 55, considering he won last summer off a rating of 69. He’s a course winner too and stays a bit further than this 6f trip, so we can expect connections to make full use of that Yes, at the age of 8 there is a chance is on a slight downward curve, but often runs well at this Welsh track and is sure to have a race or two still in him – especially from this dropping rating.  

3:35 – Join Casumo Today Nursery Handicap (IRE Incentive Race) Cl6 (2yo 0-65) 6f SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Roger Varian is 1-from-2 with his juveniles at the trrack

CASUMO VERDICT: Trainer Roger Varian is 1-from-2 here with his 2 year-olds, so his Kitsune Power – is respected. He’s had two promising runs to date at Yarmouth and Ffos Las so that experience can be a big plus. We’ve a rare 2 year-old runner in the race for Colin Tizzard, who is more famed for his jumpers – Non Stop – the betting will be the best guide here. Dirtyoldtown and Peace Negotiation have had pleasing opening runs and should go well, but a chance is taken on the unraced William Haggas runner – ART EXPERT and SAFRA, who has already shown a fair level of form. The former is having his debut here, but the yard’s 2 year-olds often know their jobs on debut – the betting will help guide us here too. Then Safra, despite being a beaten favourite last time at Southwell, might just not have liked the surface there and prior to that was thought good enough to run at Listed level. She’s a winner over this trip too, plus the useful Mark Crehan helps by being able to claim a handy 3lbs.    

4:05 – Gamble Responsibly With Casumo Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-55) 5f SKY

CASUMO KEY TREND: Jockey Richard Kongscote has a 28% record riding 2 year-olds at the track

CASUMO VERDICT: Another tricky 2 year-old contest – this time with all nine runners having had at least three runs so they are all a tad exposed. THEREHEGOES is sure to be involved – having run into the first three in five of his seven starts, plus he’ll have jockey Mark Crehan riding to claim 3lbs. Burtonlodge Beauty and Vince Lombardi are others to keep an eye on in the market, while on handicap debut – Delahouseeaye and Maison Beau – can be expected to improve for that experience. But the other pick is another one having her first run in a handicap – EL DAROOJ. This Brian Meehan runner has shown up well despite not winning in her three races to date, but now having a handicap mark should be a lot more competitive. She wasn’t given a hard time last time out too and off a rating of 63 looks to have a fair opening mark. The experienced Martin Dwyer will also give her every help from the saddle.  

4.35 – Nathan Saleh International Man Of Mystery Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-55) Sky 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Trainer Patrick Chamings has a 20% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

CASUMO VERDICT: A race with many chances and a case could probably be made for most of the nine runners. We’ve also five course and distance runners in the field – Coronation Cottage, Our Man In Havana, Ghepardo, Blue Venture, David’s Beauty, who was 7th in this race last season, and Aquadabra. It’s also interesting that the shrewd Tony Carroll yard saddle three of the 9 runners – Hot Hot Hot, Blue Venture and Our Man In Havana – and of the trio BLUE VENTURE gets the call. This 4 year-old wasn’t beaten far here last time out and is dropped a pound for that. Connections are also putting up the useful Mollie Phillips to ride and she can claim 5lbs – meaning the horse is 6lbs better off than last time. The Chris Mason yard won this race in 2019 and try again – this time with Aquadabra and shouldn’t be far away. The other call here though is GHEPARDO, for the Patrick Chamings yard that have a decent 20% record with their 4+ year-olds here. This 6 year-old is a proven CD winner too and should be more at home now dropped back to 5f, having run out of petrol over further in recent runs. He’s back to his last winning mark too and is also sporting the first-time visor to help her focus – Rossa Ryan rides, which is a further plus. 

18+ | Odds subject to change| Please gamble responsibly | www.begambleaware.org