Royal Ascot Tips and Key Trends: Day Five – Saturday 19th June 2021

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

 

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
16/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
15/18 – Had just 1 previous career run
14/18 – Were foaled in March or earlier
13/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien)
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017 and 2020
14 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
12 of the last 15 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

 

CASUMO VERDICT: This final day opening contest has been a top race for jockey Ryan Moore – with four winners since 2011 – and he’s primed for another big chance with POINT LONSDALE. This Aidan O’Brien-trained runner was mighty impressive on debut when winning at the Curragh just a few weeks ago. That came over this 7f trip too, when scoring by a staggering 5 ½ lengths and even though it’s hard to know what he beat that day the fact his powerful connections are sending him over to Royal Ascot so soon after suggests he’s useful and that he’s also come out of that race well. His main dangers look to be the Godolphin runner – New Science – who also caught the eye on debut when scoring at Yarmouth last month and the ‘boys in blue’ have won this race twice since 2012 too. Masekela won on soft ground over 6f on debut at Goodwood and is another contender, as are Great Max and Sweeping. But the danger, of those at bigger prices, can come from the Gosden/Dettori royal runner – REACH FOR THE MOON (e/w). This 2 year-old was a fair second at Yarmouth to the already mentioned New Science, but was only beaten 1 ½ lengths that day and would have learned a lot for that. He was staying on well too so suggest he was getting the hang of things and the stiffer Ascot track should also help. 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1 or 7

 

3.05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

 

Jersey Stakes Trends

17/19 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/19 – Had 4 or more career runs
12/19 – Had won over 7f before
11/19 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/19 – Horses from stall 8 placed
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Had run at Ascot before
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Won their previous race
3/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 13 runnings

CASUMO VERDICT: A race that is dominated at the head of the market by the Godolphin pair – NAVAL CROWN and Creative Force. There is little between them on the official ratings (just 1lb), and with three straight wins – Creative Force – will draw the eye of punters. But all those successes came over 6f so he’ll need to prove he can stay this extra furlong. There is every reason to think he will and breeding backs this up, but it’s still a niggle. Therefore, their other runner – NAVAL CROWN – gets the call. He was a decent fourth in the 2000 Guineas at HQ last time out and with the winner – Poetic Flare – franking the form by winning the St James’s Palace Stakes easily on Tuesday. He’s also a winner over this trip and a mile, so we know the distance is fine. Of the rest, Mutasaabeq was 7th in the Guineas last time, but with two previous wins over this 7f trip then the drop back in distance looks a plus. Aidan O’Brien’s Khartoum has to be respected to coming from a yard that have won this race three times before. Fast Raj, Mehmento and the royal runner – Tactical are others that could get involved, but I’ve also been taken with the Jane Chapple-Hyam runner – BELLOSA (e/w) – when winning both starts at Newmarket. Yes, she lacks a bit of experience compared to the others, but she gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance and it was hard to fault her Listed win last time. She’s up slightly in grade here too but certainly deserves to take her chance. The final one worth a small interest is NANDO PARRADO (e/w), who landed the Coventry Stakes last season. Not won since but has been running in G1 races and last time didn’t stay the 1m trip on soft ground so had an excuse. He probably needed his opening outing too, when fourth at Newbury in the Greenham, but still ran okay to be 4th. He’s a course winner and back to this 7f trip, could easily bounce back. 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 19 winners had 4+ career runs

 

3.40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/18 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
16/18 – Placed last time out
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/18 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
12/18 – Had run at Ascot before
12/18 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 10 winners)
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/18 – Won their previous race
7/18 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
12 of the last 15 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 15 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
7 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

CASUMO VERDICT: A super competitive renewal of the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes with the Aidan O’Brien yard having a strong hand with Broome, Japan, Tiger Moth and Mogul – cases can certainly be made for them all. Japan won the King Edward VII Stakes here in 2019, but the concern for me with him would be that he’s run at Ascot three times since and been beaten each time, plus has won just one of this last 8. Broome has caught the eye this season, but those runs have been over 1m2f and despite being a ½ fourth in the 2019 Epsom Derby over this trip, he’s yet to win over it. Hukum won the King George V Stakes at this meeting last season and heads here off the back of a nice win at Goodwood – he can go well. Joint top-rated Wonderful Tonight is a two-time G1 winner and if she’s tuned up after a 245-day break would be dangerous – but would probably want a lot more rain. 2019 St Leger winner, Logician, would have a chance on his best form, but has lost his way recently and is starting to look a tad unreliable for me. But the two that I like are SIR RON PREISTLEY (e/w) and ILARAAB (e/w). The former just got ran out of things over 1m6f last time in the Yorkshire Cup, but before that was a tidy winner over 1m4f in the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at HQ. The second that day – Pyledriver – has since franked the form and I think this tough Mark Johnston runner can go well. Then Ilaraab, deserves to take his chance after winning his last six races. Yes, he’s up from a handicap and into a G2 here, but he’s been winning with plenty in hand to suggest he’s up to the task. The trip is fine and he acts well on all ground. The final one to note, of those at bigger prices, is HIGHEST GROUND (e/w), with the Stoute yard having a top record in this race – winning it 5 times since 2012. This 4 year-old has a bit to find on the ratings, but improved for the step up to 1m4f last time when winning a Conditions race at Leicester and with just six career runs is still unexposed – especially over this trip – and, therefore, might just have that extra improvement he’ll need to find.   

CASUMO KEY TREND: ALL of the last 18 winners had won a Group 2 or 3 before

 

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

17/18 – Previous distance (6f) winners
15/18 – Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Previous Group Race winners
13/18 – Failed to win their last race
13/18 – Had run at Ascot before
11/18 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
4/18 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/18 – Trained by James Fanshawe
6 of the last 16 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
6 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price

CASUMO VERDICT: Art Power bolted up in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap here last season over 5f and has done well since but has been beaten by the likes of Glen Shiel, Dream Of Dreams and Starman since, so has a bit to answer for me. Naharr was only a neck adrift of Starman in the G2 Duke Of York Stakes last month and on the same terms should have another good battle here. The already mentioned Starman is sure to be popular again and has won four of his last five starts, but I just feel DREAM OF DREAMS is the slightly better value here. This Sir Michael Stoute runner is not getting any younger at 7 years-old but returned this season with a smooth win at Windsor and was only beaten a head into second in this race 12 months ago. Any rain would help his chance, but that might come for him, and Ryan Moore remains in the saddle to ride the horse that has recent form figures of 1-1-2-1, when Moore has been doing the steering. Of the others, it’s hard to ignore the Hollie Doyle-ridden GLEN SHIEL (e/w) too. He won the Champions Sprint Stakes here last October and should be spot-on for this after a fair 4th in the G2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh – he’s actually the only CD winner in the field too. 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or younger

 

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

21/21 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
20/21 – Had no more than 4 runs that season
19/21 – Finished sixth or better last time out
19/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won a race over 6f before
18/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/21 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
13/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Had run at Ascot before (7 had won here)
11/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
6/21 – Won their previous race
5/21 – Won by the favourite
11 of the last 15 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 15 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
8 of the last 10 runnings – the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 9 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 8 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 32 winners returning a double-figure price

 

CASUMO VERDICT: A 28-runner handicap next but some decent trends to help. With 10 of the last 11 winners coming from a double-figure draw this might be bad news for those drawn low – Raaeb, Pendleton, Streamline, Barbill, Above, Tis Marvellous, King’s Lynn, Chiefofchiefs and Fresh. Then with 11 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-3 or less in weight, we can see this as being a negative for the top nine on the card. 4 and 5 year-olds have the best recent record too – winning 18 of the last 21 runnings – so the fancied 3 year-old in the race Rohaan would have this to overcome. Taking those age and weight trends into account it’s hard to ignore the royal runner – King’s Lynn – especially with Ryan Moore riding, but this Andrew Balding runner is drawn low and doesn’t look great value in a race with 27 other horses in. Edraak, Punchbowl Flyer, Ropey Guest and Fleeting Prince all tick a lot of the main trends, but the three that I’ll be playing here are HEY JONESY (e/w), DESERT SAFARI (e/w) and REPARTEE (e/w). The first-named actually won this race 12 months ago and gets in here on just a pound higher. Yes, he’s not sparkled since, but a recent third at Chester was a sign he’s returning to form, while draw 12 gives him options – last season he won from draw 10. Desert Safari will be ridden by Frankie Dettori and with a good draw in 15 he’s interesting too if you can forgive that last run, where the Epsom track just may not have suited. Then the Kevin Ryan yard, who won this race last season, also run Repartee here and having not stayed 7f last time at HQ the drop back to 6f is a good move. He’s also had a wind op since that last run and is actually now rated 3lbs lower than when last scoring. He’s been kept fresh for this with 2 months off and Andrea Atzeni, who won this race for these owners in 2019, is a bonus in the saddle. 

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: 8 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure draw

 

5.35 – Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Just the one previous running
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
Jockey Rossa Ryan won this race in 2020
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 6-from-102 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 6-from-91 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Frankie Dettori has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 20% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

CASUMO VERDICT: Just the one past running of this race. The Roger Varian yard have a big chance with Alfaadhel and Fantastic Fox in the race – both are at the head of the betting and both look to be leading players. The first-named also beat another leading player here in Sir Rumi and with just three career runs it’s hard to fault his chance. However, I’m just going to side with FANTASTIC FOX here after his facile win at Hamilton last time out. Okay, he was sent off 1/5 in the betting, but prior to that he’d run well (3rD) at Newbury and this well-bred Frankel colt looks the sort to improve for more runs and also for this step up in trip – Silvestre De Sousa rides. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore team up with Baton Rouge, but he’s looking slightly exposed now with five runs. King Frankel has a consistent profile and is another to consider with Frankie riding. The two at bigger prices I like though are FOXES TALES (e/w) and STAY WELL (e/w). Both are on slight recovery missions after below-par runs at Chester and Goodwood last time out, but prior to that both recorded nice wins. There is every reason to think the tracks just didn’t suit last time, or in Stay Well’s case the softer ground. With Oisin Murphy (Foxes Tales) and Tom Marquand (Stay Well) riding too, then they both also have top pilots in the saddle. 

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Jockey Frankie Dettori has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

6.10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

16/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
11/18 – Had run at Ascot before
10/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
6/18 – Won by a NH yard
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/18 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
11 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall

CASUMO VERDICT: We end with another of the marathon races at the Royal Ascot meeting – being run over 2m 5 ½f. It’s a race the Andrew Balding and Mark Johnston yards have done well in recently – Balding runs his 2019 winner – Cleonte – again, while Johnston has Mildenberger. Morando is a past course winner and useful on his day, but the longer trip would be an unknown for another Balding runner. Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore often team-up in these staying Ascot races so their Stratum is another that will be popular – the trip should be fine, and you can see him creeping into the race turning for home – they teamed up to win this in 2012 and 2014. But it’s hard to ignore the Dermot Weld runner – FALCON FLIGHT – who won the Chester Cup over 2m2f last month with a bit to spare. He’s up 6lbs for that, which looks fair, and you’d expect him to have the measure of the second that day – The Grand Visir – again. Frankie remains in the saddle and there is every chance over this longer trip will see even more improvement. Of the rest, we can’t ignore last year’s winner – Who Dares Wins – we know he stays, but this year’s renewal looks a lot tougher, while he was 7 ½ lengths behind Falcon Flight at Chester last time. Global Heat, Scaramanga and Stag Horn have cases too, while another Irish raider – Barbados – has been popular in the betting all week too. However, of those at bigger prices, LETHAL STEPS (e/w) and KLOUD GATE (e/w) could go well. Lethal Steps comes from the Denise Foster yard, but with Gordon Elliott winning this race a few times in the past, he’s interesting. Okay, he ran down the field in the Ascot Stakes here on Tuesday but dwelt at the start that day and it’s interesting they are running him again so soon. Then the Gary Moore-trained Kloud Gate has returned to hurdles recently in great form – winning twice at Huntingdon – and will have no issues staying the trip. He’ll love the ground too and actually has a fair flat record too – 18 top three finishes from 39 runs (5 wins). Tom Queally rides. 

 

CASUMO KEY TREND: Jockey Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners

 

All times BST

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