Southwell Tuesday 13th July 2021 Meet Tips and Trends

Another Casumo-sponsored afternoon this Tuesday as the Sky cameras head to Southwell for an 8-race jumping card.  

We run through each race with key stats and our best bets.  

Let’s get cracking! 

 

Southwell Horse Racing Tips

 

5:12 – Casumo Bet 10 Get 10 Handicap Chase Cl5 (4yo+ 0-105) 3m½f SKY

Course winners Miami Present and Between The Waters are respected, but it’s another proven winner here at the track – DEBDEN BANK – that gets the call. This Martin Keighley-trained 7 year-old was an easy winner at Worcester last month and despite an 8lb hike for that success connections have booked Ben Godfrey to ride and offset most of that rise with his 5lb claim. The yard also boasts an impressive 38% strike-rate with their chasers here. Of the rest, Et Apres Tho, Krujers Girl and Steel Wave are respected, but a chance is also taken on IMPERIAL NEMESIS. Yes, this 8 year-old was pulled up last time behind Debden Bank, but that was his first run for over 3 months. He’s dropped a few pounds here, while the Nigel Twiston-Davies camp are another with a decent strike-rate (35% with their chasers at the course. 

 

5:45 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m4½f SKY

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill does okay here at the track with his chasers (24%), plus son Jonjo O’Neill Jnr also has a decent 37% record riding over fences here – they team up with GENERATION GAP, who can be expected to have improved a lot for his recent third at Uttoxeter. Trip and ground are ideal and he sports the first-time blinkers here too. The lightly raced Percussion and Fil D’Ariane can’t be discounted either, but the Martin Keighley yard have another good chance here too with their hat-trick-seeking DREAMSUNDERMYFEET. He’s the only course winner in the field, after winning his last two here impressively last month and despite being up a big-looking 14lbs for the last of those looks the sort to have more to come. 

 

6:15 – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-140) 3m½f SKY

The old-timers in the race – Activial and Rock On Fruity have cases to be made, but they might just be vulnerable to some younger legs with the trio Yeavering Belle, Bbold and What’s Occurring all having finished second last time out. There isn’t much between them but with the Dr Richard Newland camp having a fair record (25%) with their chasers at the track, their BBOLD is the pick. This 7 year-old ran okay on his return to the track at Worcester last time when second to a fair sort on Fidux. He should have come on for that run as it came off a 2-month break, plus leading jockey Sam Twiston-Davies remains in the saddle, which is a further bonus. 

 

6:45 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Open National Hunt Flat Race (Cat 2 Elimination) (GBB Race) Cl5 (4-6yo) 2m SKY

Many lightly raced sorts on show for this NH Flat race so the betting will be a good guide. Moveit Like Minnie will be popular being the only winner in the field after going in on debut at Worcester last month. But he carries a penalty for that success and as a result has to give weight away to all the others. Fairlawn Flyer has at least had a race so that experience will help, but with a cracking 56% record with his NH Flat runners at the track, the Nicky Henderson runner – FAIRY ROSE – has to be respected. This 5 year-old gets in here with only 10-7 to carry so gets 10lbs of Moveit Like Minnie. She’s had two runs too, so that will help and took a clear step forward last time when third at Newton Abbot. Of the others, a chance is taken on the unraced Fergal O’Brien runner – ONE HUNDRED NOTOUT – mainly because the yard has a useful 33% record in this sphere at the course. 

 

7:15 – Casumo Proud To Support British Racing Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl4 (4yo+) 2m SKY

Chance A Tune can go well but the two to focus on here look to be Olympic Conqueror and Byzantine Empire. The last-named is a proven CD winner at the track when winning here back in May. He’s since run well to be second at Newton Abbot and another bold bid looks on the cards. However, OLYMPIC CONQUEROR just edges it after winning at Uttoxeter last time. He only got home by a head that day but looked to have a bit more in the locker than the winning margin suggested. Trip and ground are perfect and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, who was on last time, gets the leg-up again. 

 

7:45 – Join Casumo Today Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl5 (4yo+ 0-100) 3m½f SKY

The likes of Ballymilan, Keep The River, plus recent winners Misscarlett and Dorette can all go well, but it’s hard to get away from FORCHENA, who has won her last three. This Tom Lacey runner only just got up last time at Hexham so the slightly longer trip here will be in her favour and she’s also a proven course and distance winner at the track. Tommie O’Brien rides again, but the good news is that he can claim a handy 3lbs this time so that helps offset some of the 7lb rise in the ratings for winning last time. 

 

8:20 – Gamble Responsibly With Casumo Handicap Hurdle (Div 1) Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m4½f SKY

This looks another good chance for the Martin Keighley yard to get on the scoresheet with their hat-trick seeking PINNACLE PEAK. This 6 year-old have been super-impressive in winning his last two at Southwell and Worcester so there should be more to come. A 7lb penalty for the last of those makes life harder but he won by an easy 14 lengths last time so there is every chance he’s up to the task. Of the rest, Dancingwith Storms, You Name Him, Cheltenham De Vaige and Oasis Prince can fight it out for the places. 

 

8:50 – Gamble Responsibly With Casumo Handicap Hurdle (Div 2) Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m4½f SKY

Looks the harder division on the final two races on the card. The Neill Mulholland yard are only 3 from 58 with their hurdlers at the track so their Cremant has this stat to overcome. Damut I’m Out is the only proven course winner in the race so has to be respected based on that alone. Mystic Court should go well too, while leading jockey Brian Hughes riding the Gary Hanmer-trained Isthebaropen catches the eye. The pick though is the Jonjo O’Neill runner – EDINBURGH CASTLE. This 5 year-old has only had three career runs over hurdles so despite some sketchy jumps last time is still learning. The longer trip should help on the jumping front too, as things will be happening a tad slower. He was a fair performer on the flat too so that proven speed will be a plus on what’s likely to be decent ‘good’ ground. 

 

All times BST

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